换乘优惠政策下公共交通乘客换乘决策行为分析  

Transfer decision-making behavior analysis of public transport passengers under preferential transfer policy

作　　者：马壮林[1] 毕宇明 张锐[1] MA Zhuang-lin;BI Yu-ming;ZHANG Rui(School of Transportation Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（工学版）》2023年第12期2513-2523,共11页Journal of Zhejiang University：Engineering Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(18YJCZH130);西安市科协决策咨询课题(202212)。

摘　　要：为了研究不同公共交通乘客在出行过程中换乘决策行为的异质性,采用结构方程模型(SEM)分析公共交通乘客的换乘意向与其他潜变量的关系,采用潜在类别模型(LCM)从乘客的心理感知因素视角和社会经济属性视角划分乘客类别.构建公共交通乘客换乘决策模型(SEM-LCM),分析不同潜在类别公共交通乘客的换乘决策行为.结果表明:相比SEM-Logit,SEM-LCM拟合效果更好;公共交通乘客分为换乘体验敏感型和换乘优惠敏感型2类,2类公共交通乘客所占比例分别为70.3%和29.7%;“换乘体验敏感型”和“换乘优惠敏感型”选择换乘的概率分别为51.1%和85.9%;年龄、家庭结构、私家车拥有情况、出行目的、换乘经历和出行模式6个变量表现出显著的异质性.研究结果可以为相关部门优化公交线网衔接、制定换乘优惠政策提供理论支撑.To study the heterogeneity of transfer decision-making behavior of different public transport passengers in the travel process,the structural equation model(SEM)was employed to analyze the relationship between transfer intention of public transport passengers and other latent variables,and the latent class model(LCM)was applied to classify passengers from the perspective of psychological perception factors and socio-economic attributes of passengers.A transfer decision-making model of public transport passengers(SEM-LCM)was constructed,and the transfer decision-making behavior of different latent classes of public transport passengers was explored.Results showed that SEM-LCM was more reliable than SEM-Logit in the fitting effect.Public transport passengers were divided into two classes,namely transfer feeling sensitive passengers and transfer discounts sensitive passengers.The proportion of these two types of public transport passengers was 70.3%and 29.7%respectively.And the probability of these two types of public transport passengers choosing to transfer was 51.1%and 85.9%respectively.Age,family structure,car ownership,travel purpose,transfer experience and travel mode show significant heterogeneity.The research results provide a theoretical support for relevant departments to optimize the connection of bus networks and formulate transfer fare discount policy.

关 键 词：城市交通 公共交通乘客 换乘决策 结构方程模型(SEM) 潜在类别模型(LCM) 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]