考虑转口贸易的全球供应链网络关键节点识别  

Identification of critical nodes in global supply chain networks considering entrepot trade

作　　者：吉如媚 张小宁[1] 闫黄 Ji Rumei;Zhang Xiaoning;Yan Huang(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2023年第6期850-863,共14页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72021002,71890973,71901163).

摘　　要：为研究国际贸易争端对全球供应链的负面影响以及转口贸易在缓解这种负面影响方面所起到的作用,基于考虑转口贸易的全球供应链网络拓扑结构,在路径可接受成本约束下,将每个起点-终点(OD)之间的不重复路径数量作为衡量OD对连通性的指标,建立了识别全球供应链网络关键节点的数学模型,并通过数值实验验证模型的有效性。结果表明,随着可接受成本水平的不断上升,全球供应链网络核心路段关键指数整体呈下降趋势,网络脆弱性呈波动下降的趋势.研究还发现转口贸易配合成本控制措施可以极大地降低国际贸易争端对全球供应链网络的破坏.To better understand the negative impact of international trade disputes on global supply chains and the role of entrepot trade in mitigating the negative impact,this paper proposes a stylized model to identify critical nodes based on the global supply chain network topology considering entrepot trade.This study uses the number of distinct paths between each origin-destination(OD)pair as a measure of the connectivity between each OD pair under the constraints of the acceptable trade costs.The results illustrate the effectiveness of the model,and reveal that as the acceptable cost level increases,the link criticality index of core links in the supply chain network presents a downward trend as well as the network vulnerability is in a fluctuant downward trend.This study indicates that entrepot trade combined with cost control measures could significantly mitigate the negative effect of international trade disputes on global supply chain network.

关 键 词：国际贸易争端 全球供应链 关键节点识别 转口贸易 贸易成本 

分 类 号：F279[经济管理—企业管理]