多指标分析的电炉企业财务风险预警模型  

Financial Risk Early-warning Model of Electric Furnace Enterprises Based on Multi Index Analysis

作　　者：王丹 应晨林 曾薇伟 WANG Dan;YING Chenlin;ZENG Weiwei(Xi'an Jiaotong University City College,Xi'an 710018,China;Xi'an Jiaotong University Office of Financial Affairs,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学城市学院,陕西西安710018 [2]西安交通大学财务处,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《工业加热》2023年第11期51-56,共6页Industrial Heating

基　　金：2019年陕西省社科基金(2019R022);2020年陕西省教育科学“十三五”规划课题(SGH20Q277);西安市会计学会2021年第十次会计科研、调研课题(21KY009);陕西省自然科学基金(2020AH5237)。

摘　　要：电炉企业财务风险的影响因素种类较多,单一的风险预警方法会导致计算误差较大,为此设计多指标分析的电炉企业财务风险预警模型。该模型由风险识别、风险监测和风险预警子模型组成,其中,风险识别和风险预警是对风险预警评价的基础和分级的重要依据。采用卡尔曼滤波技术对财务信息进行滤波,分别从偿债能力、偿债能力、投资能力、资本运作能力、成长力、产业影响等六个方面建立了财务风险在线预警指标,划分财务风险等级详情,实现财务风险在线预警。实验结果表明,该模型能够有效剔除电炉企业异常财务数据中的边缘数据,准确聚类不同种类的财务数据,对财务风险预警的误报率较低、实时预警效率较好。应用该模型能够对电炉企业财务风险进行实时、准确的预警,有效保障电炉企业财务数据的安全性。There are many types of influencing factors for the financial risk of electric furnace enterprises,and a single risk warning method can lead to significant calculation errors.Therefore,a multi indicator analysis model for the financial risk warning of electric furnace enterprises is designed.This model consists of sub models for risk identification,risk monitoring,and risk warning.Among them,risk identification and risk warning are the foundation and important basis for evaluating risk warning and grading.Using Kalman filtering technology to filter financial information,we have established online financial risk warning indicators from six aspects:debt paying ability,debt paying ability,investment ability,capital operation ability,growth ability,and industrial impact.We have divided financial risk levels into details to achieve online financial risk warning.The experimental results show that the model can effectively remove edge data from abnormal financial data of electric furnace enterprises,accurately cluster dfferent types of financial data,and have a low false alarm rate for financial risk warning,with good real-time warning efficiency.The application of this model can provide real-time and accurate warning of financial risks in electric furnace enterprises,effectively ensuring the security of financial data in electric furnace enterprises.

关 键 词：卡尔曼滤波 电炉企业财务风险 风险预警 风险在线预警 基本信息库 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]