未来十年新业态下铝资源需求分析  

ALUMINUM RESOURCE DEMAND IN NEXT DECADE UNDER NEW INDUSTRIAL SITUATION

作　　者：崔博京 陈其慎[2] 王琨[2] 张艳飞[2] 康昆 任鑫 王良晨 CUI Bojing;CHEN Qishen;WANG Kun;ZHANG Yanfei;KANG Kun;REN Xin;WANG Liangchen(School of Earth Science and Resources,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083 [2]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京100037

出　　处：《资源与产业》2023年第6期31-40,共10页Resources & Industries

摘　　要：近年来,随着新能源汽车、光伏等低碳新兴行业的高速发展,铝资源需求不断增长,但原铝生产耗能高、碳排放量大,在世界应对气候变化、“双碳”等新业态下,铝行业发展面临新的挑战。本文运用系统动力仿真模型,结合部门预测法,预测未来十年我国铝资源的生产消费情况,并从“铝土矿—氧化铝—原铝—铝产品—再生铝”全生命周期视角,定量评估正常情境、政策情境和理想情境3种情境下铝产业的减碳潜力,研判未来原铝和再生铝的需求供应趋势。研究结果表明:1)未来十年新业态下,铝需求量仍持续呈快速增长态势,新能源汽车的高速发展是拉动铝消费量增长的主要因素,交通运输部门将超越建筑业成为铝消费量的第一大领域。2)铝产业减碳的最佳路径为大力发展再生铝资源,其次为优化电解铝用电结构。面对严峻多变的国际经济形势,必须开发出更节能环保型的初级和再生冶炼技术和方法,全面提高铝资源的开发利用和循环回收水平,加快建立高效铝资源回收体系,降低铝资源供应的不确定性,从而提高我国铝资源保障能力,推动我国铝产业实现高质量发展。Rapid growth of new low carbon industries like of new electric vehicles and photovoltaic recently leads to a surging demand for aluminum resource,but production of primary aluminum has high energy consumption and large carbon emission,challenging the global climate changes and“dual carbon”goal.This paper uses system dynamics simulation model to forecast China's aluminum resource production/consumption in next decade,and quantitatively evaluates its carbon emission potential under normal,policy and ideal scenarios from a perspective of entire life circle“bauxite-aluminum oxide-primary aluminum-aluminum products-recycling aluminum”,and forecasts the future supply of primary and recycling aluminum.In next decade,aluminum demand will be still fast rising,mainly contributed by the growing new energy vehicles.Transportation will become the largest aluminum consuming sector over construction sector.The premium approach to aluminum carbon reduction is to develop recycling aluminum resource,then to optimize electricity-using structure in electrolytic aluminum.To face a challenging global economic situation,this paper presents suggestions on developing power-saving-environment-protecting primary and recycling metallurgical technologies and methods,increasing development/use and recycling levels of aluminum resource,constructing an effective aluminum resource recycling system,decreasing uncertainty in aluminum resource supply so as to secure China's aluminum resource guaranteeing capacity and to boost a quality development of China's aluminum industry.

关 键 词：需求分析 原铝 再生铝 火电铝 系统动力学模型 情境分析 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]