高等教育如何应对未来之变?——基于第七次人口普查数据的分析  

How Can Higher Education Respond to the Changes of the Future?——An Analysis Based on the Seventh Census Data

作　　者：杨怡 沈敬轩 乔锦忠[1] YANG Yi;SHEN Jingxuan;QIAO Jinzhong(Faculty of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Graduate School of Education,Peking University,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学教育学部,北京100875 [2]北京大学教育学院,北京100091

出　　处：《复旦教育论坛》2023年第5期5-18,共14页Fudan Education Forum

基　　金：广州市哲学社会科学发展“十四五”规划2022年度课题“广州共建粤港澳大湾区高水平人才高地研究”(2022GZYB49)。

摘　　要：基于第七次人口普查数据和对经济增长的预测,结合国际比较与历史数据,对2025—2035年高等教育在校生规模、层次结构与所需教师数等进行预测。结果表明:到2035年高等教育毛入学率会持续增加,或提前实现国家规划的65%的目标,但若以全日制高校入学率衡量则仍有2.46%的差距。当前我国研究生教育的规模滞后于经济发展水平,如果保持自然增长,预计到2035年研究生占比将增至11.31%;然而,与发达国家相比,我国研究生教育的规模仍需进一步扩大,至少应扩大5%左右,达到可与世界强国竞争的理想规模则应继续扩大15%左右。高等教育中的普职结构有待进一步优化,参照发达国家经验,高职高专、应用型本科、研究生教育中的专业教育等总占比应达到60%~70%,预计未来应有20%左右的普通高等教育转型为高等职业教育。未来重点学科在校生人数将持续增加,其中以工科为主要增长源,新工科中计算机类与电子信息类等战略性学科的整体质量与综合效益有待提升。伴随着高等教育质量的提高,生师比应逐步降低,到2035年高等教育专任教师的规模预计需增加超过140万人,其中重点学科专任教师的增加占比接近50%。Based on the seventh national census and projections of economic growth,international comparisons and historical data are combined to forecast the size of higher education enrollment,the hierarchical structure and the number of faculty needed between 2025 and 2035.The results show that the gross enrollment rate of higher education will continue to increase by 2035,or achieve the nationally planned target of 65% ahead of schedule,but there is still a gap of 2.46% if measured by the full-time college enrollment rate.The current scale of postgraduate education in China lags behind the level of economic development,and if natural growth is expected to increase to 11.31% by 2035,compared with developed countries,the scale of postgraduate education in China still needs to be further expanded,at least by about 5%,and to reach the ideal scale that can compete with the world powers,it should continue to expand by about 15%.The general vocational structure of higher education needs to be further optimized.With reference to the experience of developed countries,the total proportion of higher vocational college,applied undergraduate education and professional education in graduate education should reach 60%~70%,and it is expected that about 20% of general higher education should be transformed into higher vocational education in the future.The number of students enrolled in STEM disciplines will continue to increase in the future,with engineering as the main source of growth,and the overall quality and comprehensive efficiency of strategic disciplines such as computer and electronic information in the emerging engineering disciplines need to be improved.Along with the improvement of higher education quality,the student-teacher ratio should be gradually reduced,and the scale of full-time teachers in higher education is expected to increase by more than 1.4 million by 2035,of which the increase of full-time teachers in key disciplines accounts for nearly 50%.

关 键 词：高等教育规模 类型、层次与学科结构 新工科 高校教师需求 教育现代化 

分 类 号：G649.2[文化科学—高等教育学]