考虑个体异质性的大型活动参与意向选择行为  

Consideration of Individual Heterogeneity Inactivity Participation Intention Choice Behavior of Planned Special Events

作　　者：崔洪军 张冀强 朱敏清 孙婉茹 CUI Hongjun;ZHANG Jiqiang;ZHU Minqing;SUN Wanru(School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hebei Technology of University,Tianjin 300131,China;School of Architecture and Art Design,Hebei Technology of University,Tianjin 300131,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300131 [2]河北工业大学建筑与艺术设计学院,天津300131

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2024年第1期105-112,共8页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51678212);河北省技术创新引导计划资助项目(19970808D)。

摘　　要：为研究个体异质性对于大型活动参与意向选择的影响,构建了基于潜在类别选择模型的大型活动参与意向选择模型。使用D-optimal设计法生成了大型活动参与意向调查中的选择情景,并假设以天津市奥体中心为大型活动举办地,对天津市居民开展了大型活动参与意向调查。根据调查获取的数据,使用EM算法对模型进行了参数估计。模型结果表明:天气、活动时间、票价、活动类型、政策复杂度等是影响大型活动参与意向选择的主要因素。模型将潜在的大型活动参与者划分为天气敏感型群体、活动时间敏感型群体、票价敏感型群体3类,分别占样本总体的30%、15%、55%,区分度为0.81,其中类别1对天气类型最为敏感,对活动举办时间和票价不敏感;类别2对活动举办时间最为敏感,对天气的敏感程度较低;类别3对票价最为敏感,对活动时间和政策复杂度不敏感。To study the influence of individual heterogeneity on the choice of PSE activity participation intention,this paper constructed a PSE activity participation intention choice model based on the latent class choice model(LCCM).Using the D-optimal design method,the selection scenarios in the PSE activity participation intention survey were generated.Assuming that the Tianjin Olympic Sports Center is the venue for the PSE,a survey of Tianjin residents' activity participation intention for PSE was carried out.According to the data obtained from the survey,the parameters of the model were estimated by the EM algorithm.The model results show that weather,activity time,ticket price,activity type,and policy complexity are the main factors affecting the choice of PSE activity participation intention.The model divides potential PSE participants into three classes:weather-sensitive groups,activity time-sensitive groups,and ticket price sensitive groups,accounting for 30%,15%,and 55% of the sample population,respectively,with a degree of discrimination of 0.81.Class 1 is the most sensitive to weather type,but not sensitive to activity time and ticket price;class 2 is the most sensitive to activity time and less sensitive to weather;and class 3 is the most sensitive to ticket prices and less sensitive to duration and policy complexity.

关 键 词：异质性 潜在类别选择模型 大型活动 D-optimal设计 EM算法 活动参与意向 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]