富豪上榜影响分析师盈余预测行为吗?——基于媒体偏见的视角  

Does the Rich List Influence Analysts'Earnings Forecast behavior?——From the Perspective of Media Bias

作　　者：李班 陈险峰 Li Ban;Chen Xianfeng

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学财务处 [2]海南师范大学管理学院

出　　处：《投资研究》2023年第11期77-90,共14页Review of Investment Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“海南乡村休闲旅游开发的农民长期收益分享机制研究”(15BJY131)。

摘　　要：基于媒体偏见视角,本文利用PSM-DID方法实证考察富豪首次上榜对分析师盈余预测行为的影响。研究发现,富豪首次上榜后,富豪公司的分析师关注度显著增加,分析师盈余预测准确度却显著下降,主要体现为乐观估计偏差,且在管理层权力更大、分析师调研次数更多的企业、政商关系更不清白的地区中更为明显,并检验了盈余操纵的中介机制。本文揭示了富豪上榜对分析师盈余预测行为的影响及内在机理,研究结论对投资者和监管部门均具有重要意义。Based on the perspective of media bias,this paper uses the PSM-DID method to empirically examine the impact of the rich list on analysts'earnings forecast behavior.Research has found that after the first listing of wealthy individuals,the attention of analysts in wealthy companies has significantly increased,but the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts has significantly decreased,mainly reflected in optimistic estimation bias,and is more pronounced in enterprises with greater management power and more analyst research,as well as regions with more unclear political business relationships.The intermediary mechanism of earnings manipulation has been tested.This article reveals the impact and underlying mechanism of rich list on analysts'earnings forecast behavior,and the research conclusions are of great significance to investors and regulatory authorities.

关 键 词：富豪榜 媒体偏见 分析师盈余预测偏差 盈余操纵 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] G206[经济管理—国民经济]