大西洋联盟体系中的“土耳其问题”——基于联盟管理的视角  

The"Turkish Question"within the Framework of the Atlantic Alliance:A Perspective on Alliance Management

作　　者：杜东辉 DU Donghui

机构地区：[1]上海大学历史系 [2]上海大学土耳其研究中心

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2023年第5期64-91,I0003,I0004,共30页Chinese Journal of European Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“土耳其推动突厥语国家一体化的动因、影响和对策研究”(项目批准号:22CGJ040)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：大西洋联盟中的“土耳其问题”是指土耳其日益偏离北约战略轨道而引发的一系列连锁反应。北约是安全组织,但土耳其加入该组织既是为了制衡威胁,也是为了实现成为“西方国家”的身份目标。因此,安全威胁—安全供应和身份认同—价值供应的匹配程度均会影响土耳其与西方盟友的联盟紧密性。需要指出的是,安全和身份在联盟管理中的作用并不相同,前者是决定性变量,后者是辅助性变量。基于对两者的动态结构分析,可以发现土耳其与西方盟友的联盟管理模式经历了五个阶段:捆绑、强制、追随、平衡和疏离。当前双方关系的大幅波动归因于联盟管理困境:土耳其因担心“被牵连”而拒绝与盟国保持一致,又因无法实现身份融入而日益脱离西方定位;西方盟友指责土耳其偏离联盟轨道和价值观基础,但又不愿为其提供安全庇护和身份承认。双方在联盟管理的意愿和能力上出现错配,安全困境和身份困境形成共振。联盟资格的工具化、联盟合作的议题化和联盟管理的身份政治化将成为“土耳其问题”的发展趋势。The"Turkish Question"within the Atlantic Alliance pertains to a series of events with chain effects triggered by Turkiye's increasing deviation from the traditional strategic trajectory.By accession to the NATO,which is a military alliance,Turkiye is aimed at not only taking it as a security measure against the Soviet threat,but at achieving its aspiration of becoming a western country.Therefore,the degree of alignment between"threat-security supply"with"identity-value supply"can significantly impact the level of Turkiye's alliance with its western counterparts.However,within the framework of alliance management,threat plays a determining role while identity serves as an auxiliary factor.Based on this framework,this article identifies five distinct stages in Turkiye's alliance management model with its Western allies:binding,coercion,bandwagon,balance,and alienation.The current fluctuation of the alliance relationship between the two sides is attributed to the alliance management dilemma,that is,Turkiye's refusal to comply with the alliance's definition of hypothetical adversaries due to concerns about entrapment,who is increasingly estranged from the West due to its failure to obtain identity recognition.While at the same time,the Western Allies have accused Turkiye of deviating from the NATO's strategic orbit and values,who,however,are reluctant to offer the latter security guarantees and identity protection.As a result,there exists a discrepancy between the willingness and capability of both parties to manage the alliance,leading to a resonance between the security dilemma and identity dilemma.In this context,the instrumentalization of alliance qualification,the issueization of alliance cooperation and the identity-politicization of alliance management will become the principal characteristics of Turkiye's future relations with its Western Allies.

关 键 词：土耳其 北约 联盟困境 身份认同 联盟管理 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] E161[政治法律—政治学] D837.4[政治法律—外交学]