内蒙古主要气象灾害预警信息发布时效性评估模型研究  

作　　者：张立莉 吕明辉[2] 隋剑利 张晓美[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区气象服务中心,呼和浩特010051 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2024年第2期11-15,共5页Technology Innovation and Application

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项项目课题(2018YFC1507804);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目课题(2018YFC0807004);中国气象局“国家突发事件预警信息发布能力提升工程(一期)”(无编号);内蒙古自治区气象局科研项目(nmqxkjcx202321);中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划重点课题(N2021G002)。

摘　　要：该文分析内蒙古地区近几十年主要气象灾害种类及其影响特点,主要气象灾害可能造成危害程度、紧急程度和发展势态,以及相关气象灾害风险预警的发布标准。选取2021年内蒙古地区气象预警信息发布情况的数据资料,采用统计分析和图表对比等方法,分析对比内蒙古地区气象灾害时空分布及灾害损失分布特征,对预警信息发布的有效性进行检验和评估,结果显示预警信息发布与气象灾害发生的时空分布基本吻合。该文通过对预警信息发布和传播的时效性研究,建立新的适用数学模型,探索较为客观定量分析评估方法,直观反映现有的发布渠道送达率,为发布策略的完善和改进提供科学参考。This paper analyzes the types and impact characteristics of the main meteorological disasters in Inner Mongolia in recent decades,the possible harm degree,emergency degree and development situation of the main meteorological disasters,as well as the issuing standards of related meteorological disaster risk warning.Based on the data of meteorological early warning information release in Inner Mongolia in 2021,statistical analysis and chart comparison are used to analyze and compare the temporal and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and disaster loss distribution in Inner Mongolia.The validity of early warning information release is tested and evaluated.The results show that the release of early warning information is basically consistent with the temporal and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters.Through the research on the timeliness of the release and dissemination of early warning information,this paper establishes a new applicable mathematical model,explores a more objective quantitative analysis and evaluation method,and directly reflects the delivery rate of the existing release channels.To provide scientific reference for the improvement and improvement of the release strategy.

关 键 词：气象灾害 分布特征 有效性 定量分析 时效性 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]