基于影响增量的电力系统可靠性指标各阶矩快速求解方法  

Impact-increment-based Method for Rapid Calculation of Moments of Power System Reliability Indexes

作　　者：霍现旭[1,2] 张军 戚艳[1] 董紫珩[4] 孙业广 侯恺 HUO Xianxu;ZHANG Jun;QI Yan;DONG Ziheng;SUN Yeguang;HOU Kai(Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300384,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Internet of Things in Electricity,Tianjin 300384,China;State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Corporation,Tianjin 300010,China;Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院,天津300384 [2]天津市电力物联网企业重点实验室,天津300384 [3]国网天津市电力公司,天津300010 [4]天津大学智能电网教育部重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《高电压技术》2023年第11期4604-4612,共9页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国网天津市电力公司科技项目(KJ21−1−35)。

摘　　要：为了更全面地掌握可靠性指标的离散度以及支撑还原其概率分布,提出了一种用于各阶矩和半不变量形式的可靠性指标快速计算方法。该方法采用了基于状态枚举的影响增量技术,将影响增量概念应用于各阶原点矩计算式的推导,通过概率整合加快了各阶原点矩指标的收敛;利用原点矩与中心矩、半不变量的计算关系,实现了对于各阶矩与不变量指标的高效计算。并在IEEE-39系统和IEEE-118系统中验证了所提方法用于一阶矩到三阶矩计算的误差均小于1%,相比蒙特卡洛法节约了一半的计算时间,为还原可靠性指标的概率分布提供了各阶矩与不变量等关键参数。To obtain the index dispersion and further support the probability distribution,an efficient method is proposed for the moment and semi-invariant calculation in the reliability index.The method is based on the state enumeration and impacts increment method,improving the calculation efficiency of the moments of each order.Moreover,the relations between the origin moment,central moment and semi-invariant are utilized to realize the effective calculation of the moment and the invariant index.In the IEEE-39 system and IEEE-118 system,errors of the proposed method for calculating first-order to third-order moments are less than 1%,which saves half of the computing time compared with the Monte Carlo method.The method provides key parameters that support further analysis of the probability distribution.

关 键 词：可靠性评估 影响增量 概率分布 负荷削减量 高阶矩 半不变量 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]