预估全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃下淮河流域极端降雨的变化特征  

Projection of extreme precipitation over the Huai River basin under 1.5℃/2.0℃global warming

作　　者：卞国栋 张建云[2,3] 王国庆[2,3] 宋明明 BIAN Guodong;ZHANG Jianyun;WANG Guoqing;SONG Mingming(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Research Center for Climate Change,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水科学进展》2023年第6期827-838,共12页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52121006,52279018)。

摘　　要：淮河流域暴雨洪水灾害严重,科学预估未来全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃下淮河流域极端降雨的变化特征对流域防洪减灾及应对气候变化具有重要意义。基于最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中22个全球气候模式数据,利用改进的可靠性集合方案与概率比法,采用6个极端降雨指标预估了全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃下淮河流域未来极端降雨的时空变化与风险变化特征。结果表明:改进可靠性集合方案对淮河流域极端降雨的模拟性能要优于单一气候模式与算术平均集合方案;全球升温达到1.5℃与2.0℃阈值的平均时间段分别约为2017—2046年和2026—2055年;全球升温2.0℃下极端降雨指标增幅约为升温1.5℃下的1.4~2.6倍,其中流域北部地区为极端降雨增幅大值区;2种升温条件下极端降雨发生风险呈增加趋势,且额外增暖0.5℃将导致淮河流域极端降雨风险更高,如100 a重现期的极端降雨在升温1.5℃和2.0℃下将分别变为32年一遇和22年一遇,未来淮河流域极端降雨将会更加频繁。The Huai River basin has been severely affected by rainstorm and flood disasters.It is of great significance to scientifically estimate the changes in extreme precipitation under global warming of 1.5℃and 2.0℃in the Huai River basin for flood control and adaptation to climate change.Based on the projections of the 22 GCMs(Global Climate Models)issued in the CMIP6(the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project),the spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation and changes in future risk over the Huai River basin are investigated by using the modified reliability ensemble method,probability ratio method and six extreme precipitation indices.The results show that:①The modified reliability ensemble method performs better in simulating extreme precipitation indices over the Huai River basin than the single GCM and arithmetic mean ensemble approach.②The timing spans of 1.5℃and 2.0℃global warming approximately occur in 2017—2046 and 2026—2055,respectively.③The increase of extreme precipitation indices under 2.0℃global warming is 1.4 to 2.6 times of that under 1.5℃global warming,with the largest increase occurring in the northern region of the Huai River basin.④Under two global warming of 1.5℃and 2.0℃,the risk of extreme precipitation has an increasing trend,and the additional 0.5℃global warming from 1.5℃to 2.0℃will result in higher risk over the Huai River basin.For instance,the return period of a 100-year extreme precipitation will likely become to 32-year and 22-year under 1.5℃and 2.0℃global warming,respectively.In the future,extreme precipitation events will probably become more frequent over the Huai River basin.

关 键 词：极端降雨 CMIP6 多模式集合 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃ 淮河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]