基于灰色关联分析的舰船舱室人因可靠性评估  

Human reliability evaluation of ship cabins based on grey correlation analysis

作　　者：赵震 赵博 ZHAO Zhen;ZHAO Bo(College of Mechanical Engineering,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063021,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学机械工程学院,河北唐山063210

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2023年第23期166-169,共4页Ship Science and Technology

摘　　要：针对舰船舱室人因可靠性难以定量、定性综合评估这一问题,提出基于灰色关联分析的舰船舱室人因可靠性评估方法。该方法利用认知可靠性模型(HCR),分析舰船舱室驾驶员操舵的动态认知行为、应激操舵动作输出模式后,计算不同应激操舵动作输出模式下人因错误率,制定人因可靠性评估参照标准;通过基于余弦定理的人因可靠性评估指标筛选方法,由余弦定理筛选历史舰船操舵事故出现的行为形成因子,作为可靠性评估指标;构建基于灰色关联分析的人因可靠性评估模型,设置满足人因错误率标准的驾驶员操舵指标数据为参考序列,需测驾驶员的指标数据为对比序列,运算2种序列灰色关联度,关联度较大,表示人因可靠性较高,以此完成舰船舱室人因可靠性综合评估。经测试,该方法对舰船舱室驾驶员的人因可靠性评估结果与实况数据相符。To address the issue of difficulty in quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the human reliability of ship cabins,a grey correlation analysis based human reliability evaluation method for ship cabins is proposed.This method utilizes the cognitive reliability model(HCR)to analyze the dynamic cognitive behavior of ship cabin pilots during steering and the output mode of stress steering actions.After calculating the human error rate under different stress steering action output modes,a reference standard for human reliability evaluation is established.By using the cosine theorem based human reliability evaluation index screening method,the behavior formation factors of historical ship steering accidents are selected as reliability evaluation indicators based on the cosine theorem.Build a human reliability evaluation model based on grey correlation analysis,set the pilot steering indicator data that meets the human error rate standard as the reference sequence,and the indicator data of the driver to be tested as the comparison sequence.Calculate the grey correlation degree of the two sequences,with a high correlation degree,indicating high human reliability.This completes the comprehensive evaluation of human reliability in ship cabins.After testing,the human reliability evaluation results of the ship cabin pilot using this method are consistent with the actual data.

关 键 词：灰色关联分析 舰船舱室 人因可靠性 人因错误率 余弦定理 行为形成因子 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]