基于PEE动态韧性模型的安全系统风险应对机制  

The Risk Response Mechanism of Safety System Based on PEE Dynamical Resilience Model

作　　者：张秀艳[1] 王琪 ZHANG Xiuyan;WANG Qi(Department of Safety and Emergency Management,College of Safety Science and Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院安全与应急管理系,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2023年第12期71-76,165,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：中国民航大学中央高校基本科研业务费(3122021031);天津市教委科研计划项目:复杂安全系统的动态韧性演化机理与测度方法研究(2022KJ083)。

摘　　要：针对安全系统风险应对问题,提出了“主体韧性-客体风险”应对思想;以突发事件演化过程为主线,构建了“预防-应急-进化(Prevention-Emergency-Evolutionary PEE)”动态韧性模型;提出了预防、应急和进化三级韧性分类方法,确定了“已知风险有效控制-未知风险有效应对-未知风险已知化”的风险应对机制,为安全系统主体应对客体不确定风险提供了一种新思路。研究结果表明:PEE动态韧性模型符合安全科学研究的发展趋势,构成安全系统学新的理论范式,提炼得出的核心问题为后续系统安全相关研究提供了指导方向。Aiming at the problem of risk response in safety system,the thought of"subject resilienceobject risk"was put forward.The"Prevention-Emergency-Evolutionary PEE"Process Resilience Model was constructed by taking the evolution process of emergencies as the main line.The three-level resilience classification method of prevention,emergency and evolution was proposed.And the risk response mechanism of"effective control of known risks-effective response to unknown risks-making unknown risks known"was determined,which provides a new idea for the safety system subject response to object uncertain risks.These results show that the PEE Process Resilience Model accords with the development trend of safety science,and constitutes a new theoretical paradigm of safety system.The key problems extracted put forward the development direction for the follow-up research of safety system.

关 键 词：韧性 风险 应急 系统安全 协同进化 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5