开放环境下的中国自然利率估算  

Estimation of China’s Natural Interest Rate in an Open Economy Environment

作　　者：李正 Li Zheng(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第24期130-135,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD053);国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BJY068)。

摘　　要：文章借助LW半结构模型,在开放环境下估算了2002—2022年中国的自然利率水平,研究发现:(1)中国过去的自然利率基于外循环定价,国内资金市场对全球经济存在高度依存关系;(2)2012年以来中国自然利率呈现长期下降趋势,这与全球主要经济体自然利率运动规律一致,预计这一下降趋势长期不可逆转;(3)2019年自然利率水平为1.93%,与主要经济体之间仍保持了一定的利差;(4)2020—2022年自然利率与潜在增速分别出现0.65和2.46个百分点的最大跌幅。预计2023年潜在增速可能会回到4.5%~5.0%区间,自然利率也有望回升到1.6%以上。基于自然利率的绝对水平,名义利率零下限(ZLB)在短期不会形成事实威胁,传统货币政策仍保持了相当的政策空间。This paper uses the LW model to estimate the natural interest rates of China from 2002 to 2022 in an open economy environment,and draws the following conclusions:(1)China’s natural interest rates were based on outward circular pricing in the past,and the domestic capital market is highly dependent on the global economy.(2)China’s natural interest rates have shown a long-term declining trend since 2012,which is consistent with the natural interest rate movement of major economies.This trend is expected to be irreversible in the long run.(3)The natural interest rate level in 2019 was 1.93%,which still maintains a certain spread with major economies.(4)From 2020 to 2022,the natural interest rate and the potential growth rate fell by 0.65 and 2.46 percentage points respectively.It is likely that potential growth rate will return to the 4.5%~5.0%in 2023,and the natural interest rate is expected to rebound over 1.6%.Based on the absolute level of the natural interest rate,the ZLB will not pose a de facto threat in the short term,and traditional monetary policy still maintains considerable policy space.

关 键 词：自然利率 LW模型 货币政策 开放环境 ZLB 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]