2022-2035年城乡学前教育学龄人口预测及资源需求分析  

Prediction of School-aged Population and Demand ofRural-Urban Early Childhood Education Resource in China from 2022 to 2035

作　　者：贺芳 彭虹斌[2] Fang He;Hongbin Peng(School of Education Science,Huizhou University,Huizhou 516007;College of Politics and Public Management,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006)

机构地区：[1]惠州学院教育科学学院,广东惠州516007 [2]华南师范大学政治与公共管理学院,广州510006

出　　处：《教育与经济》2023年第6期77-84,93,共9页Education & Economy

基　　金：广东省教育科学“十三五”规划2020年度研究项目(德育专项)“新时代背景下小学‘互联网+课程思政’实施路径探究”(项目编号:2020KDY002);广东省哲学社会科学规划2021年度一般项目“教师教育职前职后一体化的广东探索及其模式创新研究”(项目编号:GD21CJY21)。

摘　　要：基于第七次全国人口普查数据,运用分城乡队列要素法,使用中国人口预测系统(CPPS2020),分高、中、低三种方案,对我国2022-2035年城乡学前教育学龄人口进行预测。结果表明,在预测期内,我国学前教育在园幼儿规模总体上处于下降趋势。相比2021年,高中低方案预测2035年我国在园幼儿规模降幅分别约为26.9%、43.1%、58.2%。相比2020年,中方案预测2035年城镇、农村学前教育在园幼儿规模降幅分别约为37.8%、60.9%。随着在园幼儿规模的不断萎缩,学前教育园所需求量随之变小,须尽早规划,用好城乡冗余园所;按照国家设置的幼儿园专任教师、保育员与幼儿比的标准,预测期内仍需合理扩大学前教育保教人员规模,并进一步提升其素质;落实政府学前教育经费投入的主体地位,全面推进普及普惠政策目标的实现;把握人口流动趋势,优化城乡学前教育资源的空间布局。Based on the data from the 7th National Population Census,using the urban-rural queue element method and the China Population Prediction System(CPPS2020),this study predicts early childhood education school-age population in rural-urban in China from 2022 to 2035,using three schemes:high,medium,and low.The results indicate that during the prediction period,the overall scale of early childhood education in China is experiencing a downward trend.Compared to 2021,the high,medium,and low schemes predict respectively a decrease of approximately 26.9%,43.1%,and 58.2%in the size of early childhood education school-age population in China by 2035.Compared to 2020,the medium scheme predicts that the scale of early childhood education in rural-urban will decrease by approximately 37.8%and 60.9%respectively by 2035.With the continuous shrinkage of the scale of early childhood,the demand for early childhood education kindergartens has also decreased.It is necessary to plan early and make good use of redundant kindergartens;According to the national standards of a ratio for full-time teachers and caregivers to young children,it is still necessary to reasonably expand the scale of early childhood education caregivers and further improve their quality during the prediction period;implement the main position of government funding for early childhood education,and comprehensively promote the achievement of the goal of inclusive policies;grasp the trend of population mobility and optimize the spatial layout of rural-urban early childhood education resources.

关 键 词：学前教育 资源需求 学龄人口预测 

分 类 号：F08[经济管理—政治经济学] G40-054[文化科学—教育学原理]