互联网发展与通货膨胀:理论与实证  

Internet Development and Inflation:Theory and Evidence

作　　者：苏梽芳[1] 陈雨莲 郭倩倩 SU Zhi-fang;CHEN Yu-lian;GUO Qian-qian(School of Economics and Finance,Huaqiao University,Quanzhou 362000,Fujian,China;Quanzhou Transportation Investment Limited Liability Company,Quanzhou 362000,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362000 [2]泉州市交通投资有限责任公司,福建泉州362000

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2024年第1期95-103,共9页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“经济数字化对通货膨胀的影响机制及货币政策优化研究”(21AJY001)。

摘　　要：数字经济背景下,有效识别互联网发展对通货膨胀影响的内在逻辑,对实现我国稳增长、防通胀的政策目标至关重要。在阐述互联网发展对通货膨胀影响的理论基础上,将互联网发展水平指标引入混合型新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型,实证检验互联网发展对通货膨胀的影响。通过广义矩估计模型验证,研究表明:互联网发展会抑制通货膨胀,且该结论在更换核心解释变量后依旧稳健。进一步采用SVAR模型识别互联网发展对通货膨胀影响的动态特征,发现互联网发展对通货膨胀的长短期影响存在异质性,互联网发展短期内抑制通货膨胀,但长期会推动通货膨胀,且互联网发展已成为解释我国通货膨胀变化的重要因素之一。因此,我国应充分利用互联网发展调节优化供需平衡,加强通货膨胀监测和预警机制建设,细化货币政策工具、提高其针对性和灵活性。Under the context of the digital economy,effectively identifying the intrinsic logic of Internet development's impact on inflation is crucial to achieving China's policy goals of stable growth and inflation prevention.Building upon the theoretical foundation of the impact of Internet development on inflation,the authors introduce an index of Internet development level into the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve model,and empirically test the impact of Internet development on inflation.Verified by the generalized method of moments estimation model,the results show that Internet development suppresses inflation,and this conclusion remains robust after the substitution of core explanatory variables.Further employing the SVAR model identifies the dynamic characteristics of Internet development's impact on inflation,the results show heterogeneity in the short-term and long-term effects of Internet development on inflation,with Internet development suppressing inflation in the short term but promoting it in the long term,and Internet development has become one of the significant factors in explaining inflation changes in China.Therefore,China should fully utilize the development of the Internet to regulate and optimize the supply-demand balance,strengthen the construction of inflation monitoring and early warning mechanisms,refine monetary policy tools,and enhance their specificity and flexibility.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 互联网发展 新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F279.33[经济管理—企业管理]