基于累积置信规则库推理的台风灾害直接经济损失预测  

Typhoon Disaster Direct Economic Losses Prediction Based on Cumulative Belief Rule-based System

作　　者：张恺[1] 杨隆浩 高建清[3] 郑晶[3] ZHANG Kai;YANG Longhao;GAO Jianqing;ZHENG Jing(College of Information and Intelligent Transportation,Fujian Chuanzheng Communications College,Fujian 350007,China;Institute of Decision Science,Fuzhou University,Fujian 350116,China;College of Electronics and Information Science,Fujian Jiangxia University,Fujian 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福建船政交通职业学院信息与智慧交通学院,福建福州350007 [2]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350116 [3]福建江夏学院电子信息科学学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第1期64-68,74,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72001043);国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BGL041);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(22YJAZH151,20YJC630229);福建省自然科学基金项目(2021J01339,2021J011223)。

摘　　要：针对台风灾害直接经济损失预测问题,现有的解决方法大多是基于时间序列或评估数据的预测模型,忽略了在建模过程中对历史数据的应用和模型的可解释性。鉴于此,该文将扩展置信规则库模型(EBRB)应用于台风灾害直接经济损失预测,并针对可能存在规则过量和组合爆炸问题,提出基于聚类方法与证据推理(ER)相结合的累积置信规则库(C-BRB)台风灾害经济损失预测模型。最后基于收集到的台风灾害数据进行直接经济损失预测,并通过与已有研究成果进行比较,验证基于C-BRB的台风灾害直接经济损失预测模型的有效性和可行性。In order to solve the problem of typhoon disaster direct economic losses prediction,most of the existing solutions are mainly based on the time series-based or evaluation data,which ignore the application of historical data and the interpretability of the models in the process of modeling.Therefore,this paper the extended belief rule-based(EBRB) model to typhoon disaster direct economic loss prediction are applied,and a cumulative belief rule-based(C-BRB) typhoon disaster direct economic loss prediction model based on clustering method and evidence reasoning(ER) are proposed to solve the problems of excessive belief rules and combination explosion.Finally,typhoon disaster direct economic loss prediction is carried out based on the collected typhoon disaster data.The effectiveness and feasibility of the typhoon disaster direct economic loss prediction model based on C-BRB are verified by comparing with the existing methods.

关 键 词：台风灾害 直接经济损失预测 累积置信规则库 可解释性 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] X43[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程] X915.5[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P425[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]