交通运输业碳足迹测算及其交互效应评估--以京津冀地区为例  

Carbon footprint measurement in transportation sector and assessment of its interaction effects:A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

作　　者：袁振洲[1] 袁晓敬 杨洋 陈进杰[4] 聂英杰 YUAN Zhenzhou;YUAN Xiaojing;YANG Yang;CHEN Jie;NIE Yingjie(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Beijing Key Laboratory for Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Systems and Safety Control,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China;China Railway Design Corporation,Tianjin 300308,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京100191 [3]北京航空航天大学车路协同与安全控制北京市重点实验室,北京100191 [4]石家庄铁道大学交通运输学院,石家庄050043 [5]中国铁路设计集团有限公司,天津300308

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2023年第6期74-81,共8页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：城市轨道交通数字化建设与测评技术国家工程研究中心开放课题(2023HJ01);北京市自然科学基金(J210001)。

摘　　要：针对交通运输业碳足迹及其影响因素间作用效应研究的不足,首先,建立交通运输业碳足迹测算模型对京津冀地区交通运输碳足迹进行量化评估;其次,采用对数平均迪氏指数(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)乘法形式模型研究京津冀地区交通运输业的碳排放与其他社会经济指标的交互效应;最后,基于京津冀产业结构及城镇化差异等社会经济背景,分析京津冀交通运输业碳排放影响因素的空间差异性.研究结果表明:京津冀地区交通运输业碳排放在研究期内逐年增加,北京市增长率最高,且年均增长率为8.58%;经济增长因素对京津冀全域交通运输业碳排放增加促进作用最显著;交通运输产业、生产效率等因素作用效应存在空间差异,而经济增长、人口效应、交通运输能源利用强度和碳排放强度等指标则表现出较弱的空间差异;促进经济增长与交通碳排放等环境负面影响的脱离、提高交通运输业生产效率、根据人口效应及结构进行交通运输系统设计的优化与结构调整、优化交通运输业能源结构等措施,有助于减少京津冀交通运输业碳排放量.In response to the insufficient research on the carbon footprint of the transportation sector and the interactive effects of its influencing factors,this study first establishes a carbon footprint mea-surement model for the transportation sector to quantitatively assess the carbon footprint of transporta-tion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Subsequently,a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)multiplicative form model is employed to examine the interactive effects of carbon emissions from transportation and other socio-economic indicators in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Finally,based on socio-economic factors such as industrial structure and urbanization differences in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,an analysis is conducted on the spatial variability of influencing factors for carbon emissions in the transportation sector.The results indicate that carbon emissions from the trans-portation sector in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased annually during the study period,with Beijing exhibiting the highest growth rate at an average annual rate of 8.58%.The economic growth factor significantly contributes to the increase in carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the region.There are spatial differences in the effects of factors such as transportation sector and produc-tion efficiency,while indicators like economic growth,population effects,transportation energy use intensity,and carbon emission intensity show weaker spatial differences.Measures such as promoting the decoupling of economic growth from negative environmental impacts,like carbon emissions from transportation,improving the productivity of the transportation sector,optimizing and restructuring the design of the transportation system based on demographic effects and structure,and optimizing the energy structure of the transportation sector,will help reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

关 键 词：交通碳排放 空间差异 LMDI 京津冀地区 交互效应 

分 类 号：U9[交通运输工程]