基于改进DEMATEL-ISM模型的道路拥堵下行车风险评估方法  

Traffic Risk Assessment Method under Road Congestion Based on Improved DEMATEL-ISM Model

作　　者：王翠 宋永朝[1] 吴林键[2,3] 赵雪亭 WANG Cui;SONG Yongchao;WU Linjian;ZHAO Xueting(School of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;National Inland Waterway Regulation Engineering Research Center(Chongqing Jiaotong University)Chongqing 400074,China;School of River&Ocean Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心(重庆交通大学),重庆400074 [3]重庆交通大学河海学院,重庆400074 [4]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期28-38,共11页Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61863019);重庆市教育委员会科技创新项目(KJCX2020030)。

摘　　要：为准确识别城市道路拥堵条件下的行车风险系统中各影响因素之间的内在联系以及该系统中的关键因素,本文提出一种改进DEMATEL-ISM的评估方法。首先,分析城市道路拥堵条件下的行车风险,选取18个风险因子;其次,运用多群体问询的调查问卷方法,并结合最大类间方差法对标准的集成决策试验和评价试验室(DEMATEL)以及解释结构模型(ISM)改进,建立城市道路拥堵的行车风险评估模型。最后,实例验证结果表明:基于改进DEMATEL-ISM模型的道路拥堵条件下行车风险评估体系能准确划分层次解释结构图的层级,与其他方法相比更加符合实际;交通密度、车头时距、停车次数、换道频次等关键链接因素对其他因素有较强联动影响,并且会增加发生交通事故或二次交通拥堵的概率。In order to accurately identify the internal relationship between various influencing factors and the key factors in the driving risk system under urban road congestion conditions,an improved DEMATEL-ISM evaluation method is proposed.Firstly,the traffic risk under the condition of urban road congestion is analyzed,and 18 risk factors are selected.Secondly,a traffic risk assessment model of road congestion is established by using the questionnaire method of multi-group inquiry and the improvement of the standard integrated decision Test and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)and the interpretive structure model(ISM)combined with the maximum inter-class variance method.Finally,the results of example verification show that the driving risk assessment system based on the improved DEMATEL-ISM method can accurately divide the levels of the hierarchical interpretation structure chart,and is more realistic compared with other methods.Key link factors such as traffic density,headway,stopping times and lane change frequency have a strong linkage effect on other factors,which will increase the probability of traffic accidents or secondary traffic congestion.

关 键 词：城市交通 道路拥堵 行车风险 风险评估 DEMATEL-ISM 最大类间方差法 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]