区域减污降碳协同控制--以重庆为例  

Synergistic Control of Regional CO_(2) and Air Pollutant Emissions Reduction in China:A Case Study of Chongqing

作　　者：楚英豪[1] 李京 王鹏[1] 李杉 屈加豹 方宁杰 CHU Yinghao;LI Jing;WANG Peng;LI Shan;QU Jiabao;FANG Ningjie(College of Architecture and Environment,Sichuan Univ.,Chengdu 610065,China;Sichuan Univ.Eco-Technol.Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学建筑与环境学院,四川成都610065 [2]四川川大生态环境技术有限公司,四川成都610065

出　　处：《工程科学与技术》2024年第1期183-194,共12页Advanced Engineering Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC021400)。

摘　　要：在中国面对实现碳达峰、碳中和与环境根本好转目标的背景下,重庆市作为西部大开发的重要战略支点,有责任有义务率先实现减污降碳,助力国家生态文明建设。CO_(2)和大气污染物的排放过程复杂,涉及要素众多,因而有必要明确影响CO_(2)和大气污染物排放的关键因素,为重庆市实现减污降碳协同控制提供科学参考。本文以对数均值除法指数模型(LMDI)为基础,构建扩展的LMDI–CO_(2)模型和LMDI–AP模型,并以2011—2020年重庆市CO_(2)排放和工业SO_(2)排放为对象进行实证分析,定量评估各因素对重庆市CO_(2)排放和工业SO_(2)排放变化的影响效果。同时,根据重庆市经济社会、能源环境历史发展情况挖掘各因素的影响机制,归纳协同减排的关键因子,探究重庆市减污降碳协同控制机制。结果显示,2011—2020年,经济发展效应是推动重庆市CO_(2)排放增加的首要因素,贡献率达245.59%;能源强度效应对CO_(2)减排的贡献最大,贡献率为210.51%;此外,产业结构优化为CO_(2)减排也做出了贡献。工业经济发展是推动重庆工业SO_(2)排放的主导因素,贡献率为64.47%;其他因素均为SO_(2)减排做出贡献,其中,能源强度和结构效应贡献率分别为42.65%和6.31%。可见,随着经济的发展、人口规模的扩大和生活水平的提高,重庆市CO_(2)和污染物减排的压力将会增大,“高碳化”能源结构制约着两者减排,提高能源效率和优化产业结构对实现“双减”起着关键作用。因此,降低能源强度、升级产业结构、优化能源结构是未来重庆市实现减污降碳协同控制的重要途径。In the background of China's dual goals of achieving carbon neutrality and fundamental environmental improvement,Chongqing,as an important strategic pivot point in the development of western China,has the responsibility and obligation to take the lead in reducing pollution and carbon,and help build a national ecological civilization.The emission processes of CO_(2) and air pollutants are complex and involve many elements,thus it is necessary to clarify the key factors influencing the emission of both,which can provide scientific reference for the realization of synergistic control of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Chongqing.The extended LMDI–CO_(2) model and LMDI-AP model based on the log-mean division index(LMDI)model were constructed,and the CO_(2) emissions and industrial SO_(2) emissions in Chongqing from 2011 to 2020 were used as objects for empirical analysis.And then the effects of factors on the changes in CO_(2) and industrial SO_(2) emissions in Chongqing were evaluated quantitatively.Meanwhile,the influence mechanisms of the factors were unearthed according to the historical development of Chongqing’s economy,society,and energy environment,and the key factors of synergistic emission reduction are summarized to explore the synergistic control mechanism of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Chongqing.The results showed that from 2011 to 2020,the economic development effect was the primary factor driving the increase of CO_(2) emissions in Chongqing,with a contribution rate of 245.59%.The energy intensity effect contributed the most to CO_(2) emission reduction,with a contribution rate of–210.51%.In addition,the optimization of industrial structure also contributed to CO_(2) emission reduction.With the development of the economy,the expansion of population,and the improvement of living standards,the pressure of CO_(2) and pollutant emission reduction in Chongqing will increase,and the“high carbonization”energy structure will restrict both emission reduction.Improving energy

关 键 词：CO_(2)排放 大气污染 驱动因素 协同控制 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]