黄河流域河套灌区农业面源污染模拟的难点与重点分析  

Difficulties and Critical Points of Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution in Hetao Irrigation District,Yellow River Basin

作　　者：侯聪宇 刘海霞 赵健[1,2] 宋永会[1,2] HOU Congyu;LIU Haixia;ZHAO Jian;SONG Yonghui(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Institute of Water Ecological Environment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [2]中国环境科学研究院水生态环境研究所,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第1期73-79,共7页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2021YFC3201500);黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展联合研究项目(No.2022-YRUC-01-050205-03)。

摘　　要：黄河流域河套灌区农业面源污染问题突出,使用模型模拟是对河套灌区农业面源精准溯源、准确预测、评估治理措施治理效果和生态环境影响的有效途径,也是全面应用“监测-溯源-核算-治理-管理”农业面源污染全链条防控技术体系的关键核心步骤.经梳理发现,目前河套灌区农业面源污染模型由于缺乏对“源-汇”关系的精准表述和输移转化机制的阐明,导致存在一定的“假拟合”现象,致使后续使用模型模拟得到的结论存在较大的误差和不确定性,其结果在溯源、核算、评估等方面均无法完全成为具有实际指导意义的工具;除此之外,目前河套灌区现有的水文水质数据监测网络一定程度上难以满足日益增长的农业面源模型建立、率定和验证的需要,因此率定与模拟的结果很难具有更高的时空分辨率,导致对月尺度以下发生的面源污染行为和相应的环境危害评估与实际情况具有较大偏差.因此,建议建立流域层面农业面源污染监测网和数据分享平台以获取来自河套灌区具有更高时空精度的实测数据,并通过实地实验的方式阐明在河套灌区这一特殊“农业-环境”系统中面源污染物的输移转化机制,并在此基础上开发新的可以复现并模拟该机制的机理-大数据耦合模型来为区域内的科学研究与政策决定提供帮助.The Hetao Irrigation District(HID)is located in the Yellow River Basin.Due to the concentration of agricultural production in the area,non-point-source(NPS)pollution is serious.NPS modelling is one of the most useful and critical methods for pinpointing NPS sources,predicting spatial and temporal distribution tendencies of NPS,and assessing the impact of best management practices(BMPs)on NPS behaviors and ecosystem services.Moreover,NPS modelling is also the core step of the full-chain NPS management system of‘Monitoring,Load Accounting,Source Tracing,Treatment,and Environmental Regulation(MASTER)’.Currently,the NPS models used in HID lacks accurate expression of‘source and sink’relationships and NPS fate and transport dynamics.The consequences of using such a model can lead to false matches between simulated and observed values,meaning that the model does not simulate and represent the real situation.Due to the high levels of uncertainties and biases,the results may be misleading and lack practical guidance for source tracking,load calculation,and environmental impacts assessment.Furthermore,the current NPS and hydrological monitoring networks in HID are unable to meet the growing demand for higher spatial and temporal resolution data required for model calibration and validation.As a result,the model output can only be validated at monthly level and left inaccurate for the sub-monthly results.Based on the current situation,this paper recommends establishing a data collection,storage,and sharing platform for the HIB to provide monitoring data for NPS simulation.Additionally,the lack of on-site monitoring data should be addressed by conducting field experiments in HID to elucidate the‘source-sink’relationship and fate and transport dynamics of NPS.Finally,the model framework can also be improved by adopting both big data models and distributed models to maximize the utilization of monitoring and remote sensing data.

关 键 词：黄河流域 河套灌区 农业面源污染 模型模拟 治理监管 

分 类 号：X1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]