基于决策树和logistic回归模型的中学生吸烟影响因素分析  

Analysis on factors influencing smoking among secondary school students based on decision tree and logistic regression models

作　　者：林满治 褚美洁 李贤 方芷薇 马宏浩 王鹏钧 毛立 江宜珍 LIN Man-zhi;CHU Mei-jie;LI Xian;FANG Zhi-wei;MA Hong-hao;WANG Peng-jun;MAO Li;CHIANG Yichen(Health Education Section,Huli District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xiamen city,Fujian 350206,China;School of Public Health,Xiamen University;School of Management,Xuzhou Medical University)

机构地区：[1]厦门市湖里区疾病预防控制中心健康教育科,福建350206 [2]厦门大学公共卫生学院 [3]徐州医科大学管理学院

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2023年第11期839-845,共7页Preventive Medicine Tribune

摘　　要：目的分析中学生吸烟的危险因素,为制定控烟干预提供依据。方法于2017年5月,利用随机抽样的方式,抽取厦门市湖里区4所中学的1370名中学生为研究对象,运用决策树分类模型分析中学生吸烟的重要影响因素,使用logistic回归量化重要因素的效应。结果决策树模型结果发现,影响中学生吸烟的前10位变量依次是“拒绝别人递烟的能力”“吸烟的样子很酷,很有吸引力”“吸烟代表心理成熟、事业成功”“吸烟好处大于坏处”“吸烟是社会交际的必需品”“公共场所吸烟不文明”“吸烟是个人选择”“学校应禁止吸烟”“应禁止青少年吸烟”“吸烟的中学生品德差”。在logistic回归分析中,“认为吸烟的样子很酷,很有吸引力”(O R=5.51,P=0.008)、“认为吸烟是社会交际的必需品”是影响中学生吸烟的危险因素(O R=3.32,P=0.045);与坦然接受别人递烟相比,不好意思拒绝(O R=0.19,P=0.021)和拒绝别人递烟(O R=0.03,P<0.001)是中学生吸烟的保护因素,“认为吸烟的中学生品德差”也是其保护因素(O R=0.14,P=0.005)。结论中学生对吸烟本身的看法、拒烟效能和政策素养是影响中学生吸烟的重要因素,对吸烟的错误认知是中学生吸烟的危险因素,拒绝别人递烟的能力和认为中学生吸烟品德差有助于减少中学生的吸烟行为。Objective To analyze the risk factors associated with smoking among secondary school students,so as to provide a foundation for the development of tobacco control interventions.Methods In May 2017,1370 secondary school students from 4 secondary schools in Huli district,Xiamen city were selected for the study using random sampling.A decision tree classification model was employed to identify the significant influencing factors for smoking among secondary school students,and logistic regression was utilized to quantify the effects of these key factors.Results The decision tree model revealed that the top 10 variables influencing smoking among secondary school students were,in descending order,“ability to refuse someone offering cigarettes,”“perception that smoking looks cool and attractive”,“association of smoking with psychological maturity and career success,”“perceived benefits of smoking outweighing the drawbacks”,“smoking as a social necessity”,“perceived lack of civility in smoking in public places”,“viewing smoking as a personal choice”,“support for school smoking bans”,“advocacy for prohibiting smoking among adolescents”,and“belief that smoking students have poor morals”.Logistic regression analysis indicated that perceiving“smoking as looking cool and attractive”(OR=5.51,P=0.008)and considering“smoking as a social necessity”(OR=3.32,P=0.045)were significant risk factors for youth smoking.Conversely,hesitancy to refuse cigarette offers(OR=0.19,P=0.021)and actively refusing cigarettes(OR=0.03,P<0.001)were identified as protective factors against adolescent smoking.Additionally,the perception of“poor morals among smoking secondary school students”was also identified as a protective factor(OR=0.14,P=0.005).Conclusion The perspectives of adolescents on smoking,refusal efficacy,and policy literacy are crucial factors influencing youth smoking behavior.The misconception about smoking is a risk factor for smoking among middle school students.The ability to refuse

关 键 词：中学生 吸烟 拒烟效能 政策素养 决策树 LOGISTIC回归模型 

分 类 号：R181.37[医药卫生—流行病学] R179[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]