基于MGWR的长江流域植被演化及其影响因素  

Vegetation evolution and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Basin based on multi-scale geographical weighted regression

作　　者：李泳君 陈青长 方贺 李建 LI Yong-jun;CHEN Qing-chang;FANG He;LI Jian(College of Urban Construction and Safety Engineering,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China;Zhejiang Climate Center,Hangzhou 310057,China)

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术大学城市建设与安全工程学院,上海201418 [2]浙江省气候中心,浙江杭州310057

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2024年第1期352-362,共11页China Environmental Science

基　　金：上海市教育科学研究项目(C2023104);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LQ21D060001);浙江省“尖兵”“领雁”研发攻关计划项目(2023C03190);浙江省气象局科技重点项目(2022ZD06);中国气象局风云卫星先行计划项目(FY-APP-2021.0105);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J040)。

摘　　要：以2000~2022年长江流域植被覆盖度为因变量,以地形、气象、社会经济因素为自变量,借助能很好处理尺度差异的多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)探讨植被时空变化及其影响因素.结果表明:2000~2022年长江流域植被覆盖度呈现波动变化,以改善为主,增长速度为0.245%/a;流域植被空间分布模式为东西低,中部高的空间分异;未来流域大部分地区有退化风险.不同影响因子对于长江植被的作用出现明显的空间差异,其中坡度、高程、气温及相对湿度是长江流域植被变化的主要驱动因素;值得注意的是人为因子对于植被的影响力相对较小.植被与各个影响因子的响应尺度具有显著差异,其中地形和气候因子等自然因素对于植被的作用尺度较小,仅为43,而社会因素的作用尺度较大(>870).The Yangtze River Basin is an important industrial and agricultural production area and ecological security barrier in China.In-depth research on the spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation in the basin and its influencing factors and scale effects is of great significance for understanding the regional vegetation growth under changing environments and grasping the ecological environment quality.However,previous studies have not fully considered the difference between/in scale effects of different influencing factors of vegetation spatial differentiation pattern.Therefore,this study took the vegetation coverage of the Yangtze River Basin from 2000 to 2022 as the dependent variable and used terrain,meteorology,and socio-economic factors as independent variables.With the help of multiscale geographic weighted regression(MGWR)which was good at handling scale differences,the spatial-temporal changes of vegetation and its influencing factors were explored.The results showed that:1)Vegetation coverage in the Yangtze River Basin fluctuated between 2000 and 2022,with an overall improvement trend and a growth rate of 0.245%per year.The spatial distribution pattern of vegetation in the basin showed a low-east and high-central pattern,indicating significant spatial differentiation.However,there was a risk of degradation in most areas of the basin in the future.2)Different influencing factors had obvious spatial differences in their effects on vegetation in the Yangtze River,among which slope,elevation,temperature,and relative humidity were the main driving factors.It was noteworthy that anthropogenic factors had relatively small influence on vegetation.3)The response scales of vegetation to various influencing factors were significantly different,with natural factors such as terrain and climate having smaller impact scales(only 43)than social factors(over 870).

关 键 词：长江流域 植被覆盖度 时空变化 影响因素 多尺度地理加权回归 尺度效应 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]