地方政府财政实力、超额信贷扩张与城商行流动性风险  

Local Governments'Fiscal Strength,Excess Credit Expansion and Liquidity Risk of Urban Commercial Banks

作　　者：刘志东[1] 谢泽中 荆中博[1] 徐成彬 LIU Zhidong;XIE Zezhong;JING Zhongbo;XU Chengbin(School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081;Research Center of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京100081 [2]中国国际工程咨询有限公司研究中心,北京100048

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2023年第12期3148-3175,共28页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71850008);国家自然科学基金项目(72271253);中央财经大学青年科研创新团队支持计划资助课题.

摘　　要：信贷资金财政化是中国当前面临的重要问题,对其进行治理可有效防范系统性金融风险爆发.文章基于城商行独有效用函数构建理论框架,探究不同类型地方政府财政收入通过隐性担保或融资替代对城商行超额信贷扩张及流动性风险的作用机制,并以2012-2019年间104家中国城市商业银行为研究样本进行实证检验.研究结果表明:首先,地方政府一般性财政实力通过隐性担保激励城商行进行超额信贷扩张并提高自身流动性风险.其次,国有土地出让收入与城商行信贷资金存在显著替代关系,因此可降低城商行流动性风险;新增政府债券收入则存在双向作用机制,其作为隐性担保指标将提高城商行流动性风险,但其融资属性也可抑制城商行流动性风险.最后,地方政府融资平台的超额信贷融资发挥了主要中介作用,融资平台、上市国有企业、上市非国有企业的融资约束在一般性财政实力提高城商行流动性风险中发挥的正向调节作用依次递减.文章为深刻理解信贷扩张时期的信贷资金财政化形成机制、加强城商行超额信贷扩张的逆周期监管工作提供帮助.The improper use of credit funds for fiscal purposes is an important problem facing China,which should be effectively handled to prevent the outbreak of systemic financial risk.Based on the unique utility function of urban commercial banks,this paper constructs a theoretical framework to explore the mechanism of different types of local government fiscal revenue on excess credit expansion and liquidity risk of urban commercial banks through implicit guarantee or financing substitution,and conducts an empirical analysis using data of 104 Chinese urban commercial banks from 2012 to 2019.The empirical results show that:First,the general fiscal strength of local governments encourages urban commercial banks to excessively expand credit and thus increase their liquidity risks through implicit guarantee.Second,there is a significant substitution relationship between land-transferring fees and credit funds of urban commercial banks,so it can reduce the liquidity risk of urban commercial banks.As an implicit guarantee index,local government bond will improve the liquidity risk of urban commercial banks,but it can also lower the liquidity risk as a financial instrument.Finally,the excess credit financing of local government financing vehicles plays a major mediating role,and the financing constraints of local government financing vehicles,listed state-owned enterprises and listed non-state-owned enterprises play a decreasing positive moderating role in the improvement of liquidity risk of urban commercial banks by general fiscal strength.This paper sheds light on the transformation mechanism of credit funds into fiscal funds during the period of credit expansion and provides insights for strengthening the countercyclical supervision of excess credit expansion of urban commercial banks.

关 键 词：地方政府财政实力 隐性担保 城市商业银行 流动性风险 超额信贷扩张 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F832.4F832.33