生态安全视角下乌鲁木齐市土地利用冲突时空格局演变分析  

Spatiotemporal pattern evolution of land use conflict in Urumqi City from the perspective of ecological security

作　　者：彭娅 王娟娟 王珊珊 田柳兰 刘婕[1,4] 毋兆鹏 PENG Ya;WANG Juanjuan;WANG Shanshan;TIAN Liulan;LIU Jie;WU Zhaopeng(School of Geographical Sciences and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China;Bureau of Natural Resources,Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,Changji 831100,Xinjiang,China;Secondary Art School Affiliated with Xinjiang Art Institute,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China;Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Regions of Xinjiang,Urumqi 830054,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]昌吉回族自治州自然资源局,新疆昌吉831100 [3]新疆艺术学院附属中等艺术学校,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [4]新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2024年第1期81-92,共12页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研基金项目(XJEDU2021I021);国家自然科学基金项目(41761113)资助。

摘　　要：从生态安全角度识别区域土地利用冲突,处理好城市发展和土地利用的协调关系,对实现区域可持续发展尤为重要。在土地利用冲突理论分析框架和“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型下,借助生态系统服务价值和生态风险评价因子构建了一个土地利用冲突测度模型,对2000、2010年和2020年乌鲁木齐市土地利用冲突的时空演变格局分析方法,并且利用FLUS模型对2030年土地利用冲突变化进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年,乌鲁木齐市73%以上的面积是无冲突和轻度冲突区域。土地利用冲突的热点区由乌鲁木齐中心城区北部及西南地区蔓延至其南部及北部的山区林地周边、达坂城区盐湖两边的冲积扇附近,分布范围有所扩大;冷点区主要聚集于中心城区周边以及东、南部的山区林地范围内。(2)气候、地形地貌等自然因素仍是土地利用冲突强度空间分异的主导因素。(3)生态系统服务价值与土地利用冲突之间存在空间正相关,而生态风险与土地利用冲突之间则存在显著的空间负相关关系。(4)2030年,虽然乌鲁木齐市的土地利用高度冲突区增幅最大,但无冲突、轻度冲突区仍居于优势地位。研究结果为乌鲁木齐市土地利用冲突提供了一个诊断指标体系和方法,这对于深度了解乌鲁木齐市土地利用冲突时空演变特征以及冲突机理提供了例证和科学支撑。It is crucial to identify regional land use conflicts from the perspective of ecological security and effectively manage the coordination between urban development and land use.This study develops a land use conflict measurement model within the theoretical analysis framework of land use conflict and the pressure-state-response model,incorporating ecosystem service value and ecological risk evaluation factors.The spatiotemporal evolution patterns of land use conflict in Urumqi City,Xinjiang,China,for 2000,2010,and 2020 are analyzed.Furthermore,the future land use simulation model is employed to simulate and predict changes in land use conflict by 2030.The results indicate the following:(1)From 2000 to 2020,more than 73%of Urumqi’s area was conflictfree or mildly conflicted.During this period,hotspots of land use conflicts expanded from the northern and southwestern areas of Urumqi City to mountainous woodlands in the northern and southern regions,as well as near alluvial fans on both sides of Dabancheng District’s salt lake.The cold spot areas were primarily concentrated in the central urban region and within the mountainous woodland areas in the eastern and southern parts.(2)Natural factors such as climate,topography,and geomorphology remain the predominant drivers of spatial variations in land use conflict intensity.(3)A positive spatial correlation exists between the value of ecosystem services and land use conflict,whereas a significant negative spatial correlation exists between ecological risk and land use conflict.(4)In 2030,despite the substantial increase in Urumqi’s land use zones with a high conflict rate,areas characterized by minimal or no conflicts continue to maintain their dominant position.This study provides a diagnostic index system and methodology for analyzing the Urumqi land use conflict,and serves as an example and offers scientific support for an in-depth understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and conflict mechanism of the Urumqi land use conflict.

关 键 词：土地利用冲突 生态系统服务价值 生态风险 FLUS模型 乌鲁木齐市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]