苏南水网地区蓝绿空间格局多情景模拟预测  

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of blue-green spatial pattern in the southern Jiangsu water network area

作　　者：丁金华[1] 孙琦 DING Jinhua;SUN Qi(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215011,Jiangsu,China;Zaozhuang Vocational College,Zaozhuang 277800,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学建筑与城市规划学院,江苏苏州215011 [2]枣庄职业学院,山东枣庄277800

出　　处：《浙江农林大学学报》2024年第1期202-210,共9页Journal of Zhejiang A&F University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41301191);江苏省建设系统科技项目(2018ZD243);江苏高校品牌专业建设工程二期项目(风景园林);“十四五”江苏省重点学科(风景园林学)共同资助项目。

摘　　要：【目的】模拟预测苏南水网地区蓝绿空间格局多情景发展趋势,探究促进地区可持续发展的情景方案。【方法】以江苏省苏州市吴江南片区为例,设置自然发展、生态保护优先和城镇发展优先等3种情景,借助CA-Markov模型,对2030年蓝绿空间格局变化趋势进行多情景模拟分析,并运用形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)和景观连通性评价解读蓝绿空间景观生态结构与生态格局特征。【结果】不同发展情景下蓝绿空间规模与格局变化差异显著。自然发展和城镇发展优先情景下,蓝绿空间面积呈现加速减少趋势,分别减少了3626.37、7145.74 hm^(2)。蓝绿空间核心区、孔隙等形态类型负向变化剧烈,蓝绿空间破碎度增加,连通性降低。生态保护优先情景与自然发展和城镇发展优先情景相比,蓝绿空间面积分别增加了2904.30、6423.67 hm^(2),蓝绿空间核心区等形态类型增幅明显,孔隙率显著降低,蓝绿空间破碎度降低,连通性增强。【结论】自然发展和城镇发展优先情景对水网地区蓝绿空间呈现负向影响趋势,生态保护优先情景在维持蓝绿空间面积与格局稳定,改善蓝绿空间连通性方面效果显著。[Objective]The objective is to simulate and predict the multi-scenario development trend of the blue-green spatial pattern in the southern Jiangsu water network area,and explore scenario plans to promote sustainable development in the region.[Method]Taking the southern Wujiang District of Suzhou City,Jiangsu Province as sampling area,three scenarios were set up:natural development,ecological protection priority,and urban development priority.Based on CA-Markov model,a multi-scenario simulation analysis was conducted to simulate and analyze the changing trend of the blue-green spatial pattern in 2030.Morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)and landscape connectivity evaluation were used to interpret the ecological structure and characteristics of the blue-green spatial landscape.[Result]There were significant differences in the scale and pattern of the blue-green space under different development scenarios.Under the priority scenario of natural development and urban development,the area of the blue-green space showed an accelerated reduction trend,with a reduction of 3626.37 and 7145.74 hm^(2) respectively.The shape types of the core area and pore of the blue-green space changed sharply in the negative direction,resulting in an increase in fragmentation and a decrease in connectivity in the blue-green space.Compared with the priority scenarios of natural development and urban development,the priority scenario of ecological protection increased the area of the blue-green space by 2904.30 and 6423.67 hm^(2),and the core area of the blue-green space and other morphological types increased significantly,with a significant reduction in porosity,a reduction in the fragmentation of the blue-green space,and an increase in connectivity.[Conclusion]The priority scenarios of natural development and urban development have a negative impact on the blue-green space in the water network area,and the priority scenario of ecological protection has a significant effect on maintaining the stability of the area and pattern of the

关 键 词：蓝绿空间 CA-Markov模型 多情景模拟 形态学空间格局分析 水网地区 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]