社会复杂系统智能模拟:涌现机理与方法路径  

Intelligent Simulation of Social Complex Systems:Emergence Mechanisms and Methodological Paths

作　　者：吕鹏 陈典涵[1] Lu Peng;Chen Dianhan(School of Public Administration,Central South University,Changsha 410075,P.R.China;PKU-WUHAN Institute for Artificial Intelligence,Wuhan 430075,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学公共管理学院,长沙410075 [2]中南大学自动化学院,长沙410075 [3]中南大学法学院,长沙410075 [4]北京大学武汉人工智能研究院

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第1期125-135,共11页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“新技术应用背景下数字社会特征研究”(19ZDA143);北京市社科基金一般项目“基于大数据的群体事件模型预测与动态预警研究”(16SRB014);中央引导地方科技发展专项“‘全息东湖’智能社会模拟器研发”(2023EGA035);“东湖高新区国家智能社会治理实验综合基地”项目;中南大学研究生自主探索项目“社会公共安全事件仿真模拟:基于社会学习与群体智能视角”(2023ZZTS0526)。

摘　　要：随着人工智能技术的不断发展与突破,人类正在进入智能社会。社会有机体是一个复杂系统,社会模拟正在成为智能时代社会治理的重要方法,并体现在微观(社会行为体)、中观(组织形态)、宏观(总体治理目标)三个层面。社会模拟的核心是构造“涌现”机制,高精度刻画和呈现社会运行的过程与结果。基于涌现机理解读社会复杂系统,社会模拟打通了社会诸系统、诸层面之间的关联,揭示了跨系统复杂关系与社会过程,这契合了智能社会的治理需求。社会模拟通过刻画微观层面的智能体行为,模拟社会行为体,并通过涌现机制来考察社会结果。因此,二者具有契合性。可围绕社会刻画、社会知识、模拟推演、社会预测、社会干预、社会优化六个环节,设计一个将社会模拟应用于社会治理的较为完整的方法路径。社会模拟可以在个体、组织、政府、社会、国际关系等层面实现突破,助力国际关系和谐、构建人类命运共同体。展望未来,社会模拟在智能社会治理及其具体场景中,具有广阔的应用前景。With the rapid development and widespread application of AI technology,the world is entering the era of intelligent society.The social organism can be regarded as a complex system.Therefore,social(system)simulation is becoming an increasingly important method for social governance,which can be reflected at three levels,such as micro(individual),medium(organizational)and macro(societal and global).For social simulation,the core objective is to model the social process and solve the underlying emergence mechanism.It can accurately model,represent and reproduce both the real-time process and the final results of social phenomena.Based on the emergence mechanism,we can better understand complex social systems.For social governance in the era of intelligent society,we have more diverse social actors,such as humans,machines,robots,and others.Social simulation can better reflect the whole society by connecting different systems and levels of society.Based on social simulation,especially agent-based modelling,constant interactions,complex relationships and social processes in multi-layered systems can be further revealed,which meets the governance needs of intelligent societies.In the context of an intelligent society,researchers can use social simulation to represent the behavior of social agents at the micro level,while monitoring and observing social outcomes at the macro level through emergence.Therefore,the social complex system can be better understood through social simulation.The emergence of intelligent society is changing the style of social governance for the whole country of China.Nowadays,China is carrying out the national-led nationwide experiments on intelligent social governance from 2021 to the present.Since 2012,a series of relevant experiments and practices have been carried out in China,such as smart cities(2012-),urban brains(2016-),digital governments,digital twin cities,etc.Therefore,this round of intelligent social governance experiments can be regarded as the latest stage of the Chinese path to m

关 键 词：社会复杂系统 社会模拟 复杂系统涌现 社会知识 智能社会 

分 类 号：C912[经济管理] N941.4[社会学]