2015—2021年百色市4类慢性病早死概率变化趋势及预测分析  

Trend and Forecast Analysis of Premature Mortality Probability by Four Major Non-communicable Diseases in Baise from 2015 to 2021

作　　者：张胜男 许世华 黄荣超[2] 陈坚[2] 赵春茹 蒙明虑 马迎教 ZHANG Shengnan;XU Shihua;HUANG Rongchao;CHEN Jian;ZHAO Chunru;MENG Minglyu;MA Yingjiao(School of Public Health,Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities,Baise 533000,China;Baise Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Baise 533000,China)

机构地区：[1]右江民族医学院公共卫生与管理学院,广西壮族自治区百色市533000 [2]广西壮族自治区百色市疾病预防控制中心,533000

出　　处：《中国全科医学》2024年第11期1387-1394,共8页Chinese General Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19XGL020);广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目(2020KY13028)。

摘　　要：背景我国居民慢性非传染性疾病(慢性病)疾病负担较严峻,已成为制约人群健康期望寿命提高的重要影响因素。目的了解百色市2015—2021年4类重大慢性病(恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病)早死情况及实现“健康中国2030”目标情况,为制定西部贫困地区慢性病防控策略提供借鉴。方法收集2015—2021年登记在百色市疾病预防控制中心死因监测系统的死亡数据,计算死亡率、早死概率等指标,运用Joinpoint 24.0软件,以平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)和率的变化趋势进行描述。结果2015—2021年,百色市4类慢性病粗死亡率为549.06/10万(AAPC=0.13%),标化死亡率为302.92/10万(AAPC=-5.66%),变化趋势均无统计学意义(P>0.05);女性4类慢性病标化死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.66%,P=0.046)。其中总人群、男性、女性心脑血管疾病粗死亡率呈上升趋势(AAPC=2.74%,P=0.004;AAPC=2.43%,P=0.013;AAPC=3.17%,P=0.011),男性、女性慢性呼吸系统疾病标化死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-8.66%,P=0.023;AAPC=-8.17%,P=0.027)。总人群、男性、女性4类慢性病早死概率分别为15.77%、26.03%、10.42%,其慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率均呈下降趋势(AAPC=-6.89%,P=0.012;AAPC=-7.18%,P=0.007;AAPC=-6.94%,P=0.020)。男性4类慢性病早死概率约为女性的2.5倍。按照百色市2015—2021年4类慢性病早死概率平均增长速度,预计2030年百色市4类慢性病早死概率为14.62%,而2030年4类慢性病早死概率目标值为13.69%,只有女性、恶性肿瘤和慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率目标值高于预测值。需将2021—2030年4类慢性病早死概率的平均下降速度提高至2.63%,才能实现2030年的早死概率目标,其中男性的平均下降速度应提高至2.70%。糖尿病早死概率应被重点关注,其预测值低于目标值且差距较大,下降速度应提高至6.76%。结论2015—2021年百色市总人群、男性、女性心脑血管疾病粗死亡率呈上升Background The disease burden of non-communicable diseases(NCDs)among residents in China is relatively severe,which had become an important influencing factor in limiting the increase of healthy life expectancy of the population.Objective To identify the premature mortality of four major NCDs(cancer,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases)and the achievement of"Health China 2030"goal in Baise from 2015 to 2021,so as to provide reference for the development of prevention and control strategies for NCDs in western poverty-stricken regions.Methods The mortality data registered in the cause of death surveillance system of the Baise Center for Disease Prevention and Control from 2015-2021 was collected,indicators such as mortality and the probability of premature mortality were calculated,Joinpoint 24.0 software was used to describe the trend of change in terms of average annual percentage change(AAPC)and rate.Results The crude mortality of the four major NCDs was 549.06/100000(AAPC=0.13%)and the age-standardized mortality was 302.92/100000(AAPC=-5.66%)from 2015-2021,with no significant change in any of them(P>0.05).The age-standardized mortality in women showed a significant decrease(AAPC=-1.66%,P=0.046).There was an increasing trend in the crude mortality for cardiovascular disease in the total population,males,and females(AAPC=2.74%,P=0.004;AAPC=2.43%,P=0.013;AAPC=3.17%,P=0.011),and a decreasing trend in the standardized mortality rate for chronic respiratory diseases in men and women(AAPC=-8.66%,P=0.023;AAPC=-8.17%,P=0.027).The probability of premature mortality of the four major NCDs was 15.77%,26.03%and 10.42%for the total population,men and women,with a decreasing trend from chronic respiratory diseases(AAPC=-6.89%,P=0.012;AAPC=-7.18%,P=0.007;AAPC=-6.94%,P=0.020).The probability of premature mortality from four NCDs in men was about 2.5 times higher than that in women.According to the average growth rate of the probability of premature mortality of the 4 NCDs in Bai

关 键 词：肿瘤 糖尿病 心脑血管疾病 慢性呼吸系统疾病 早死概率 Joinpoint回归分析 趋势分析 百色 

分 类 号：R739.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]