基于LEAP模型的甘肃省电力源温室气体和污染物协同减排情景模拟  

Scenario simulation of coordinated emission reduction of greenhouse gases and pollutants in power sources in Gansu Province based on the LEAP model

作　　者：陈恒蕤 庞可 廖鹏 周恒左 张芊 潘峰[1] 杨宏[1] CHEN Heng-rui;PANG Ke;LIAO Peng;ZHOU Heng-zuo;ZHANG Qian;PAN Feng;YANG Hong(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;China Three Gorges Renewables(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Gansu Branch,Lanzhou 730000,China;Environmental Engineering Evaluation Center with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100000,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [2]中国三峡新能源(集团)股份有限公司甘肃分公司,兰州730000 [3]生态环境部环境工程评估中心,北京100000 [4]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210023

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第6期727-734,共8页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(LZUJBKY-2017-65)。

摘　　要：以2020年为基准年,构建2020-2030年甘肃省发电量的3种(低速、中速、高速)一级情景和电力结构发展的基准情景、可再生能源发电、清洁燃煤发电(CCFPG)3种二级情景,基于长期能源可替代规划体系(LEAP)模式探究甘肃省电力源碳达峰的最佳路径,探讨污染物及温室气体协同减排的情况.结果表明,预计2025年甘肃省发电量约230.78 TW·h,2030年约272.43~285.26 TW·h CCFPG情景下可实现2030年的碳达峰要求.3种一级情景下CO_(2)及3种污染物(NO_(x)、SO_(2)、PM_(2.5))排放量趋势相似,均在2020-2025年迅速增加,此后趋于平缓,中速CCFPG情景下CO_(2)排放于2029年达峰;CO_(2)、NO_(x)、SO_(2)、PM_(2.5)的达峰年削减率分别为-24.01%、-22.98%、-26.41%和-26.43%.CCF-PG情景要求甘肃省不仅要保证可再生能源在整体发电中所占的比例,尽可能降低风电弃电率和光伏弃电率,更要在“十五五”期间进行传统火力发电行业的清洁燃煤和碳捕集与封存改造.要进一步争取甘肃省电力源碳排放在2028年前达峰,需更早增加一体化气化联合循环-碳捕集与封存的占比.With 2020 as the base year,three first-level scenarios of low-speed,medium-speed and highspeed power generation and three second-level scenarios of business as usual,renewable power generation and clean coal-fired power generation (CCFPG) for power structure development in Gansu Province from 2020 to 2030 were constructed.Based on the long range energy alternatives planning system(LEAP) model,the optimal path for carbon emission peak and coordinated emission reduction of pollutants and greenhouse gases in the power sources in Gansu Province were discussed.The results showed that the power generation in the province in 2025 would be about 230.78 TW·h,and in 2030 between272.43 and 285.26 TW·h.Under the CCFPG,the power sources in Gansu Province could achieve the target requirements of peaking in 2030;under the three first-level scenarios,the emission trends of CO_(2and) three pollutants (NO_x,SO_(2) and PM_(2.5)) would be similar,and the emissions would increase rapidly from 2020 to 2025,and tend to flatten out.Under medium-speed scenarios,CO_(2) would peak in 2029,and the reduction rates of CO_2,NO_x,SO_(2) and PM_(2.5) be-24.01%,-22.98%,-26.41%and-26.43%respectively.CCFPG scenario required Gansu Province to not only ensure the proportion of renewable power generation in the overall power generation and reduce the rate of abandoned wind and light as much as possible,but also replace conventional coal-fired by clean coal-fired power generation,or even carbon capture and storage.To strive further for the power sources in Gansu Province to reach carbon emission peak before2028,it would be necessary to increase the proportion of integrated gasification combined cycle-carbon capture and storage earlier.

关 键 词：长期能源可替代规划体系模型 甘肃省 碳达峰 协同减排 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]