基于CMIP6的秦岭北麓未来极端降水洪涝风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Future Extreme Precipitation Flooding in the Northern Foot of Qinling Mountains Based on CMIP6

作　　者：杨璐莹 霍艾迪[1,2,3] 赵志欣 钟芳倩 王星 陈建[1,2] YANG Luying;HUO Aidi;ZHAO Zhixin;ZHONG Fangqian;WANG Xing;CHEN Jian(School of Water and Environmental,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Mine Geological Hazards Mechanism and Control,Ministry of Natural Resources,Xi’an 710054;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in the Arid Region,Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an,710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学水利与环境学院,陕西西安710054 [2]自然资源部矿山地质灾害成灾机理与防控重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [3]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第2期55-60,66,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42261144749,41877232,41790444)。

摘　　要：随着全球变暖,极端降水的风险评估已成为学术界和各国政府广泛关注的焦点。为准确分析秦岭北麓在全球变暖情景下未来洪涝灾害事件风险时空分布,基于CMIP6降水数据、地理数据及社会经济数据,采用博弈论组合赋权法结合熵权法和层次分析法构建洪涝灾害风险评估模型,对未来两种情景(SSP245和SSP585)、两个时段(2040—2060年和2070—2090年)的洪涝灾害风险进行评估。结果表明:1)危险性较高的地区主要分布于蓝田县和山区低洼地区,随着年份及情景的变化,危险性有明显的增高趋势;2)脆弱性较高的地区主要在周至县、鄠邑区和长安区北部及山区公路地区;3)极端降水洪涝致灾风险等级较高的地区主要集中在蓝田县和临潼区,不同情景下洪涝致灾风险随时间呈增加趋势。With global warming,the risk assessment of extreme precipitation has become the focus of academic circles and governments of various countries.Therefore,in order to accurately analyze the trend and risk distribution of future flood disasters in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains under the global warming scenario,based on CMIP6 rainfall data,geographical data and socio⁃economic data,the game combination weighting method,entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process were used to build a flood disaster risk assessment model.Flood disaster risk was assessed for two scenarios(SSP245 and SSP585)and two periods(2040-2060 and 2070-2090).The results show that:a)the high⁃hazard areas are mainly distributed in the Lantian area and low⁃lying mountain areas.With the change of years and different development scenarios,the risk has a significantly increasing trend.b)The high vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in Zhouzhi County,Huyi District,northern Chang’an District and mountain road areas.c)The areas with a high risk of extreme rainfall and flood disaster are mainly concentrated in Lantian County and Lintong District.The risk of flood induced disasters increases over time in different scenarios.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 风险分析 极端降水指数 CMIP6 秦岭北麓 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]