基于GM(1,1)模型的贵州省农产品冷链物流需求预测  

Demand Forecasting of Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics in Guizhou Province Based on GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：李婷婷[1] 唐小平 LI Ting-ting;TANG Xiao-ping(School of Economics,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2024年第1期101-103,81,共4页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：为提前了解贵州省农产品冷链物流需求发展趋势,把握未来贵州省农产品冷链需求,让相关部门、企业更好地对农产品冷链物流进行规划建设。文中选取贵州省七类适冷农产品总产量作为样本数据,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对贵州省2022-2031年农产品冷链物流需求量进行预测。结果表明,所构建模型通过了有效性检验及精度检验,贵州省农产品冷链物流需求是逐年加大的。最后,对未来贵州省农产品冷链物流的发展,提出几点建议。In order to understand the development trend of cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Guizhou Province in advance,and to grasp the future cold chain demand of agricultural products in the province,so that the relevant departments and enterprises can better plan and build the cold chain logistics of agricultural products.The article selects the total output of seven types of cold-suitable agricultural products in Guizhou Province as the sample data,and applies the gray GM(1,1)model to forecast the demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Guizhou Province from 2022 to 2031.The results show that the constructed model passed the validity test and accuracy test,and the demand for agricultural cold chain logistics in this province is increasing year by year.Finally,a few suggestions are made for the future development of agricultural cold chain logistics in Guizhou Province.

关 键 词：农产品 冷链物流 GM(1 1) 预测 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]