基于灰色-马尔科夫模型评估石雀滩海洋牧场岩礁鱼类碳储量  

Assessment of Carbon Storage of Reef Fish in Shique Beach Marine Ranching Based on Grey-Markov Model

作　　者：李梦迪 李娇[2] 薛月光 关长涛[2] 公丕海[2] 段勇杰 程浩 LI Mengdi;LI Jiao;XUE Yueguang;GUAN Changtao;GONG Pihai;DUAN Yongjie;CHENG Hao(School of Fishery,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China;Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Key Laboratory of Marine Fisheries and Sustainable Development,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Carbon-Sink Fisheries Laboratory,Qingdao 266071,China;Agricultural Service Center of Xuejiadao,Qingdao 266530,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋大学水产学院,浙江舟山316022 [2]中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所农业农村部海洋渔业与可持续发展重点实验室碳汇渔业实验室,山东青岛266071 [3]青岛市黄岛区薛家岛农业服务中心,山东青岛266530

出　　处：《渔业科学进展》2024年第1期14-22,共9页Progress in Fishery Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFD0902101);国家自然科学基金(32002442)共同资助。

摘　　要：本研究以石雀滩海洋牧场许氏平鲉(Sebastes schlegelii)、大泷六线鱼(Hexagrammos otakii)、褐菖鲉(Sebasticus marmoratus)、铠平鲉(Sebastes hubbsi)、厚头平鲉(Sebastes pachycephalus)等岩礁鱼类为研究对象,基于2017—2020年地笼网采捕的渔获量数据,采用元素分析法和灰色-马尔科夫模型,统计并预测了岩礁鱼类现存生物量的碳储量(以下简称岩礁鱼类碳储量)。结果显示,岩礁鱼类干样碳含量分布范围为42.95%~50.19%,平均值为(46.11±2.34)%;鲜样碳含量分布范围为11.05%~13.25%,平均值为12.30%。2017年春季、2018年冬季、2019年春季和2020年冬季鱼礁区岩礁鱼类碳储量分别为293.46、104.49、119.40和48.48 t,呈波动式下降趋势;对照区分别为21.64、59.07、6.73和0 t,呈先上升后下降的趋势。灰色-马尔科夫模型验证数据平均相对误差为8%,较GM(1,1)模型预测精度提升了12%。经预测,鱼礁区岩礁鱼类碳储量呈下降趋势,2021年春季、2022年冬季、2023年春季和2024年冬季分别为64.84、49.84、25.28和19.43t。研究结果可为评估岩礁鱼类碳汇潜力提供依据,为建立渔业碳汇基础上的海洋牧场岩礁鱼类资源开发策略提供科学参考。At present,the world is still experiencing a climate warming trend,which has severe implications for Earth’s sustainable development.Increasing carbon sinks mitigates climate change and improves national and social development through carbon trade.As the largest carbon pool on the planet,the ocean serves as a major carbon sink.The fishery carbon sink is an important part of the ocean carbon sink,which can increase the capacity of aquatic fishery ecosystems to absorb atmospheric CO2.Marine ranching is a typical example of a carbon sink fishery and an effective model for ensuring the sustainability of the carbon sink effect of aquatic fishery ecosystems.Despite the fact that marine ranching plays an important role in enhancing the carbon capacity of fishery carbon sinks,there have been few studies on marine ranching carbon storage.Reef fish species are the target population for marine ranching conservation and enhancement and are the most typical biological community of an artificial reef ecosystem,with substantial ecological and economic benefits.Reef fish species have an important influence on the carbon cycling,deposition,and removal processes in the ocean.It is one of the key carbon storage components of the marine ranching carbon sink.However,there are currently only a few studies on the carbon storage capacity of reef fish.Therefore,estimating and predicting the carbon storage of reef fish are useful for assessing the carbon sink potential and formulating a stock enhancement strategy for reef fish based on the carbon sink target.Based on this,we conducted research on five species of reef fish.On the one hand,we determined the carbon content of reef fish and used the standing biomass of reef fish harvested by cage nets from Shique Beach marine ranching in April 2017,January 2018,May 2019,and December 2020 to estimate the carbon capacity of reef fish in the artificial reef area and contrast areas in spring 2017,winter 2018,spring 2019,and winter 2020.On the other hand,we used the Grey-Markov model,a predictio

关 键 词：海洋牧场 岩礁鱼类 碳储量 GM(1 1)模型 灰色-马尔科夫模型 

分 类 号：S953[农业科学—水产养殖]