房价收入比对城镇中等收入家庭的消费水平影响研究  

Study on the Influence of the Ratio of House Price to Income on the Consumption level of Urban Middle-income Households

作　　者：童素娟 唐寅 黎东升[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江科技学院经济管理学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江金融》2023年第11期22-31,共10页Zhejiang Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金立项项目“养老金‘并轨’改革的收入再分配效应研究:内在机理、实证分析与政策优化”(71904176);国家社会科学基金一般项目—家庭债务对消费的挤出效应研究(19BJL063);浙江省自然科学基金立项项目“机关事业单位养老金双轨制改革的收入再分配效应研究—基于浙江省的实证分析”(LQ19G03002);2023年浙江省统计重点研究项目“房价对中等收入群体的消费水平影响研究”。

摘　　要：本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据2010~2018年的数据,采用相对收入标准法精准测算各年度中等收入群体的分布和消费特征,基于固定效应模型和随机效应模型,研究发现:房价对城镇中等收入家庭的不同类型消费影响有显著差异;房贷支出占比对城镇中等收入家庭消费水平的中介效应显著;相较于城镇低、高收入家庭,房价收入比对中等收入家庭消费水平的影响最大。最后,从促进就业和稳定收入、保障消费时间的休假制度、形成促进消费机制等方面提出若干建议,以提高城镇中等收入家庭的消费水平,促进国内经济复苏。Using the data of China Household Tracking Survey CFPS from 2010 to 2018,this paper adopts the relative income standard method to accurately measure the distribution and consumption characteristics of middle-income groups in each year.Based on the fixed effect model and the random effect model,the research finds that:housing prices have significant differences on the consumption of different types of urban middle-income families;The ratio of mortgage expenditure to urban middle-income household consumption has a significant mediating effect;Compared with urban low and high income households,the ratio of house price to income has the greatest impact on the consumption level of middle-income households.Finally,from the aspects of promoting employment and stable income,stabilizing housing prices and guaranteeing housing,guaranteeing vacation system for consumption time,forming a mechanism to promote consumption,it is proposed to improve the consumption level of urban middle-income families and promote domestic economic recovery.

关 键 词：中等收入群体 房价收入比 消费水平 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]