基于非参数外推的动车组设备舱底板振动最大值预测  

Prediction of the Maximum Vibration Value for EMU Equipment Compartment Floor Based on Non-parametric Extrapolation

作　　者：张红卫 李国顺 陈璨 郭力荣 张义超 ZHANG Hongwei;LI Guoshun;CHEN Can;GUO Lirong;ZHANG Yichao(Locomotive&Car Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司机车车辆研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国铁路》2024年第1期99-105,共7页China Railway

基　　金：中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研开发基金项目(2022YJ275)。

摘　　要：随着列车运行速度的提高,动车组设备舱等薄壁结构的振动越来越明显。短时短里程所测载荷数据难以代表全生命里程下的载荷最大值边界,需要对载荷数据进行全生命里程下的最值预测。介绍基于非参数外推方法进行更高运行速度条件下振动载荷最大值预测的一般流程,以动车组设备舱底板垂向振动实测数据为研究对象,对底板振动与列车运行速度的变化规律进行分析,并预测动车组设备舱底板振动最大值。结果表明,设备舱底板振动最大值与列车运行速度呈近似二次函数关系;以单日测试数据为基础,采用非参数外推方法进行3日最大值预测,预测值与实测值误差小于5%;在列车运行速度450 km/h条件下,全生命里程的非参数外推法预测值相对于直接预测值增大19%。因此,在更高运行速度的动车组设计中,采用非参数外推的预测结果作为振动载荷边界,具有更大的安全裕量。As train running speeds increase,the vibration of thin-walled structures,such as EMU equipment compartment,become more pronounced.It is challenging for the load data measured over a short period of time and distance to accurately represent the maximum load boundary over the entire life cycle kilometrage,so it is necessary to predict the maximum value of load data over the entire life cycle kilometrage.This paper introduces a general process for predicting the maximum vibration load under high running speed conditions using a non-parametric extrapolation method.Taking the measured vertical vibration data of equipment compartment floor of high-speed EMUs as the research object,the variation law between floor vibration and train running speed is analyzed,and the maximum vibration value of EMU equipment compartment floor is predicted.The results indicate that the maximum vibration value of the equipment compartment floor has an approximately quadratic function relationship with the train running speed.Using the non-parametric extrapolation method based on the single-day test data,the 3-day maximum value can be predicted,with an error of less than 5% compared to the measure value.When the train operates at 450 km/h,the predicted value of the life cycle kilometrage using the non-parametric extrapolation method increases by 19% compared to the value obtained through direct prediction.In the design of higher-speed EMUs,using the predicted result from non-parametric extrapolation as the vibration load boundary provides a larger safety margin.

关 键 词：高速动车组 非参数外推 设备舱底板 全生命里程 振动 

分 类 号：U266[机械工程—车辆工程]