2021年中国农业源氧化亚氮排放及减排的经济成本和社会收益研究  

Investigation on China’s agricultural nitrous oxide emissions with analysis of economic costs and social benefits of emission reductions in 2021

作　　者：丰睿 李震华 周荣 戚庄周 FENG Rui;LI Zhenhua;ZHOU Rong;QI Zhuangzhou(College of Environmental&Resource Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058;State Key Laboratory of Clean Energy Utilization,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027;Xiacheng District Study-Aid Science&Technology Studio,Hangzhou 310004;Environmental Science Research&Design Institute of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310007;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学,环境与资源学院,杭州310058 [2]浙江大学,能源清洁利用国家重点实验室,杭州310027 [3]杭州市下城区学援科技工作室,杭州310004 [4]浙江省生态环境科学设计研究院,杭州310007 [5]中国科学院大学经济管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2024年第1期424-437,共14页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金·面上项目(No.2022M722733);浙江省博士后科研项目择优资助(No.ZJ2022082)。

摘　　要：氧化亚氮(N_(2)O)是对全球变暖贡献率第三大的温室气体,仅次于CO_(2)和CH_(4);N_(2)O是21世纪破坏臭氧层最多的物质.本研究估算了2021年我国各省级行政区农业源N_(2)O总排放以及各子行业和部门的排放,并计算了在现有技术框架下减排农业源各子行业N_(2)O的潜力、经济成本和所能获得的社会收益.结果表明,2021年我国农业源排放的N_(2)O总共为177.32×10^(4)(143.63×10^(4)~212.96×10^(4))t,其中化肥施用导致的N_(2)O排放为59.67×10^(4)(48.33~71.66×10^(4))t,动物粪便管理为26.82×10^(4)(21.72×10^(4)~32.21×10^(4))t,粪肥施用为32.73×10^(4)(26.51×10^(4)~39.31×10^(4))t,秸秆还田为32.09×10^(4)(25.99×10^(4)~38.54×10^(4))t,淋溶径流为12.95×10^(4)(10.49×10^(4)~15.55×10^(4))t,大气氮沉降为13.05×10^(4)(10.57×10^(4)~15.67×10^(4))t.各省级行政区平均农业源N_(2)O排放量为5.72×10^(4)t,中位数是5.73×10^(4)t(新疆).排放最多的5个省份为黑龙江、河南、吉林、四川和山东,分别约为12.58×10^(4)、11.85×10^(4)、11.71×10^(4)、10.74×10^(4)和10.14×10^(4)t,总计占比32.2%;排放最少的5个省级行政区为青海、宁夏、天津、上海和北京,总计排放为3.43×10^(4)t,占比1.9%.施用当前技术,不考虑不确定性,能使得2021年我国化肥、动物粪便管理、粪肥和秸秆还田的N_(2)O排放分别减少23.87×10^(4)、13.09×10^(4)、13.40×10^(4)和12.84×10^(4)t.采用“精准农业”减排化肥和秸秆还田排放N_(2)O的成本分别为387.5元·kg^(-1)和425.6元·kg^(-1),采用土壤微生物活性抑制剂减排粪肥排放N_(2)O的成本为46.6元·kg^(-1).减少1kg N_(2)O排放能使我国获得的货币化社会收益为13.4元.本文总结了目前可减少我国农业源N_(2)O排放的方案,并提出了改进现有的计算我国农业源N_(2)O排放方法的建议.Nitrous oxide(N_(2)O)is the third most important greenhouse gas for global warming,only next to CO2 and CH4;N_(2)O has been the predominant ozone-depleting substance throughout this century.This study estimates China’s total N_(2)O emissions from agricultural sources in 2021.It also calculates the maximum potential,economic costs,and social benefits of reducing N_(2)O emissions from agricultural activities within the current existing technological framework.The results show that in 2021,the total N_(2)O emissions from agricultural sources in China were 1773.2(1436.3~2129.6)Gigagram(Gg),inclusive of 596.7(483.3~716.6)Gg of N_(2)O emissions from fertilizer application,268.2(217.2~322.1)Gg from animal manure management,327.3(265.1~393.1)Gg from manure application,320.9(259.9~385.4)Gg from straw incorporation,129.5(104.9~155.5)Gg from leaching runoff,and 130.5(105.7~156.7)Gg from atmospheric nitrogen deposition.The average agricultural N_(2)O emissions in each provincial-level administrative region were 57.2 Gg,with a median of 57.3 Gg,which was Xinjiang.The top five provinces were Heilongjiang,Henan,Jilin,Sichuan,and Shandong,emitting 125.8 Gg,118.5 Gg,117.1 Gg,107.4 Gg,and 101.4 Gg,respectively,accounting for a total of 32.2%;the least five emitters were the Chinese provincial-level administrative regions of Qinghai,Ningxia,Tianjin,Shanghai,and Beijing,with a total emission of 34.3 Gg,combined accounting for only 1.9%.Implementing several technologies can reduce China’s agricultural N_(2)O emissions from fertilizers,animal manure management,manure application,and straw returning by 238.7 Gg,130.9 Gg,134.0 Gg,and 128.4 Gg,respectively,in 2021.The cost of using"precision agriculture"to reduce N_(2)O emissions from fertilizers and straw incorporation was estimated to be 387.5 Chinese Yuan per kilogram and 425.6 Yuan per kilogram,respectively.The cost of using soil microbial inhibitors to reduce N_(2)O emissions from manure application was about 46.6 Yuan per kilogram.The monetized social benefit obtained from redu

关 键 词：全球变暖 臭氧层破坏 省级排放清单 减排经济成本 减排社会收益 

分 类 号：X17[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196