2020年夏季辽宁省多模式降水预报检验  

Verification technology of multi-model precipitation forecast in Liaoning province in summer 2020

作　　者：王月 刘成瀚 段云霞[1] 孙虹雨[4] 崔景琳 苏雨萌 陈沛宇 班伟龙 WANG Yue;LIU Chenghan;DUAN Yunxia;SUN Hongyu;CUI Jinglin;SU Yumeng;CHEN Peiyu;BAN Weilong(Shenyang Meteorological Service,Shenyang 110168,China;Institute of Atmospheric Environment,CMA,Shenyang 110166,China;Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Meteorological Observatory,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Meteorological Information Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Hebei Provincial Meteorological Technical Equipment Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳市气象局,辽宁沈阳110168 [2]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [3]东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室,辽宁沈阳110166 [4]辽宁省气象台,辽宁沈阳110166 [5]辽宁省气象信息中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [6]河北省气象技术装备中心,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2023年第6期37-43,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室联合开放基金课题(2022SYIAEKFMS10);辽宁省气象局年度基金项目(202302);辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(2021SXB01);沈阳市气象局科研项目(SY202111)共同资助。

摘　　要：选用2020年夏季辽宁省区域自动站资料和7种模式预报资料,根据降水强度将站点分为5种降水类型,分析各数值模式36 h和48 h预报检验降水场的分布误差、相关性及雨带位置。结果表明:36 h预报结果好于48 h,48 h降水量预报结果普遍比观测值偏大。初夏、夏末及秋初,各模式降水量预报偏差相对较小,盛夏的预报值偏差较大,尤其强降水站点的降水量预报值显著偏小。36 h预报值与观测值的相关系数和散点分布表明,弱降水站点和较弱降水站点的ECMWF预报结果最好,NCEP和WRF_3KM次之。中量降水站点、较强降水站点和强降水站点的NCEP预报结果最好,ECMWF和WRF_3KM次之。各模式雨带位置预报存在不同程度偏差,其中ECMWF的结果较好。Based on precipitation data observed at regional meteorological stations from June to September 2020,we verified the precipitation forecasts from 7 numerical models.We divided the summer precipitation in Liaoning province into 5 types according to the precipitation intensity and selected 36-hour and 48-hour forecast times to test the distribution errors and correlations of the precipitation field,as well as the location of the rain-bands.The results show that the 36-hour forecast is better than the 48-hour forecast,and the amount of 48-hour forecast precipitation is generally larger than that of the real observations.In early summer,late summer,and early autumn,the forecast deviation of each model is relatively small,while in midsummer,the prediction deviation of the model is large,especially in those stations where the heavy precipitation occurs.According to the 36-hour correlation coefficient between the precipitation predictions and observations and scatter distribution map,the ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)model has the best forecast performance in those stations where the precipitation is classified as weak and weaker.The NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)model and WRF_3KM(Weather Research and Forecasting)model followed;For the moderate,heavier,and heavy precipitation,the NCEP model has the best forecast performance,ECMWF,and WRF_3KM followed.Different models have different levels of deviation in the forecast of rain-band location,among which ECMWF has the best performance.

关 键 词：数值模式 降水预报 检验 雨带指数 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]