1990—2019年中国牙周病疾病负担情况分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of the burden of periodontal disease in China from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：李舜航 宋信杰 管唯珍 黄雨珊 孙荣寅 苗润艳 李京[3,4] 胥欣 LI Shunhang;SONG Xinjie;GUAN Weizhen;HUANG Yushan;SUN Rongyin;MIAO Runyan;LI Jing;XU Xin(School of Stomatology,Weifang Medical University,Weifang,Shandong Province 261053,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院口腔医学院,山东省潍坊261053 [2]奎文区疾病预防控制中心慢性病防治科 [3]潍坊医学院公共卫生学院,山东省潍坊261053 [4]潍坊医学院发展规划处,山东省潍坊261053

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2023年第11期807-811,共5页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：山东省优质专业学位教学案例库项目(SDYAL2022149);山东省中医药科技项目(M-2022235);潍坊市科技发展计划(医学类)项目(2021YX047);潍坊市中医药科研立项项目(WFZYY2023-2-001);潍坊医学院大学生创新创业训练计划(X2022242);潍坊医学院优质专业学位教学案例库项目(22YZSALK08);潍坊医学院公派国内访学项目(20237-10);2021年山东省高等学校“青创人才引育计划”。

摘　　要：目的了解1990—2019年中国牙周病的疾病负担状况并对2020—2030年发病趋势进行预测,为中国牙周病的防治提供依据。方法从全球疾病负担研究2019(GBD2019)中提取1990—2019年中国牙周病的患病率、发病率和伤残损失寿命年(YLD)率等相关数据。利用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0进行时间趋势分析,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。采用R 4.2.1构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型对2020—2030年中国牙周病的标化发病率进行预测。结果1990—2019年中国牙周病患病率、发病率和YLD率分别从8866.09/10万、854.46/10万和58.14/10万增长到14738.07/10万、1269.93/10万和96.28/10万,总体呈上升趋势(AAPC分别为1.85%、1.32%、1.75%,P<0.05);标化患病率、标化发病率和标化YLD率的变化趋势均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。2019年中国牙周病患病率、发病率和YLD率分别在60~64岁组、45~49岁组和55~59岁组达到最高值。1990年和2019年中国牙周病标化患病率、标化发病率和标化YLD率均低于全球平均水平。预测结果显示,女性的牙周病标化发病率预计从2020年的1078.43/10万上升至2030年的1127.30/10万,增长4.53%;男性的标化发病率预计从2020年的1087.26/10万上升至2030年的1127.19/10万,增长3.67%;女性增长幅度高于男性。结论1990—2019年中国牙周病疾病负担较重,且预测结果显示标化发病率将呈上升趋势。需加大对牙周病的防治力度,制定相应的防治策略,减轻中国居民的牙周病负担。Objective To understand the disease burden of periodontal disease in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the incidence trend from 2020 to 2030,and provide the evidence for the prevention and treatment of periodontal disease in China.Methods Data on the incidence,morbidity and years lived with disability(YLD)rate of periodontal disease in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD2019).Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 was used for time trend analysis,the average annual percent change(AAPC)was calculated.R 4.2.1 was used to construct a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the standardized incidence of periodontal disease in China from 2020 to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2019,the morbidity,incidence and YLD rates of periodontal disease in China increased from 8866.09/105,854.46/105 and 58.14/105 to 14738.07/105,1269.93/105 and 96.28/105,respectively.The overall trend was upward(AAPC values were 1.85%,1.32%and 1.75%,respectively,P<0.05);there was no significant difference in the trend of standardized morbidity,standardized incidence and standardized YLD rate(P>0.05).In 2019,the peak values of morbidity,incidence and YLD rates of periodontal disease in China were in the 60-64,45-49 and 55-59 age groups,respectively.The standardized morbidity,standardized incidence and standardized YLD rate of periodontal disease in China in 1990 and 2019 were lower than the global average level.The predicted results showed that the standardized incidence of periodontal disease in females will increase from 1078.43/105 in 2020 to 1127.30/105 in 2030,the increase rate is 4.53%;the standardized incidence rate for males will increase from 1087.26/105 in 2020 to 1127.19/105 in 2030,the increase rate is 3.67%;the increase rate of periodontal disease incidence in females is higher than that in males.Conclusion The burden of periodontal disease in China from 1990 to 2019 was relatively heavy,and the predicted results show that the standardized incidence will be upward trend.In the future,it is necessary to s

关 键 词：牙周病 疾病负担 变化趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R781.4[医药卫生—口腔医学]