基于BP神经网络的浙江省水资源承载力状态评价  

Evaluation of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Zhejiang Province Based on BP Neural Network

作　　者：周丽[1] 孙潇涵 ZHOU Li;SUN Xiaohan(College of Mathematics and Physics,Wenzhou University,Wenzhou,China 325035)

机构地区：[1]温州大学数理学院,浙江温州325035

出　　处：《温州大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期25-31,共7页Journal of Wenzhou University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：温州市科技局基础性科研项目(S20190006)。

摘　　要：综合考虑水资源、社会负荷、经济负荷、生态环境4个子系统,选取15个影响水资源承载力的评价指标,建立水资源承载力的BP神经网络模型,对浙江省2006―2018年水资源承载力进行时间纵向评价,对2018年浙江省11个地市水资源承载力进行地域横向评价.结果表明,13年间浙江省水资源承载力指数都分布在区间[0.62,0.79]内,2006年指数值最低,2010年指数值最高,都属于等级Ⅲ,呈基本承载状态,水资源承载力在2006―2008年处于稳定阶段,在2009―2012年处于振荡阶段,在2013―2018年呈缓慢上升趋势;2018年浙江省11个地市水资源承载力指数都分布在区间[0.65,0.76]内,丽水和舟山的指数值最低,温州的最高,都属于等级Ⅲ,呈基本承载状态,金华、舟山、丽水水资源承载力水平与浙江其他地市相比较低;年降雨量是浙江省水资源承载力的最主要的影响因素.Considering the four subsystems of water resources,social load,economic load and ecological environment,this paper selected 15 evaluation indicators affecting the carrying capacity of water resources,established a BP neural network model of water carrying capacity,and conducted a longitudinal evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources in Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2018 and a regional horizontal evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in 11 prefectures and cities in Zhejiang Province in 2018.The results showed that the carrying capacity index of water resources in Zhejiang Province in the past 13 years was distributed in the range[0.62,0.79],with the lowest value in 2006 and the highest value in 2010,all of which belonged to grade III and showed a basic bearing state.From 2006 to 2008,the carrying capacity of water resources was in a stable stage;from 2009 to 2012,it was in an oscillating stage;and from 2013 to 2018,it showed a slow upward trend.In 2018,the water resource carrying capacity index of 11 prefectures and cities in Zhejiang Province was distributed in the range[0.65,0.76],with the lowest value in Lishui and Zhoushan and the highest value in Wenzhou,all of which belonged to grade III and showed a basic bearing state.The carrying capacity of water resources in Jinhua,Zhoushan,Lishui was relatively low compared with other prefectures and cities in Zhejiang Province.Annual rainfall was the most important influencing factor on the carrying capacity of water resources in Zhejiang Province.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 评价 BP神经网络 浙江省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]