美国“去风险”对中国产业链供应链安全的影响及应对  

Impact of U.S.“De‐Risking”on China's Industrial Chain Security and Supply Chain Security and the Countermeasures

作　　者：蔡宏波[1] 郑涵茜 余天赐[2] CAI Hong-bo;ZHENG Han-xi;YU Tian-ci(Business School,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Bank of China Head Office,Beijing 100818,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875 [2]中国银行总行,北京100818

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2024年第1期33-43,共11页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“开放经济安全监测预警和综合评估研究”(21&ZD086);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“全球贸易网络安全:基于复杂系统的模型构建与应用”(1233300001)。

摘　　要：在大国竞争加剧、突发公共卫生事件冲击和乌克兰危机持续等多重不确定性因素叠加的背景下,全球产业链供应链正进入重要的重塑阶段。与此同时,美国先后提出对华“脱钩”“去风险”,以减少其对中国产业链供应链的依赖,这严重影响了全球产业链供应链的稳定畅通。首先,本文界定产业链供应链安全范畴主要包括主体要素安全和结构要素安全。其次,辨析美国“脱钩”“去风险”政策意图的异同,并就现阶段美国“去风险”对中国产业链供应链安全的主要影响和中国所面临的现实挑战进行论述。分析发现,美国“去风险”对中国产业链供应链安全的主要影响包括:一是美国通过控制核心技术、中间品出口和关键资源危及中国产业链供应链主体要素安全。二是通过制造业回流、“近岸外包”“友岸外包”重塑全球产业空间布局,威胁中国产业链供应链结构要素安全。三是通过友好国家网络拉拢盟友,增加中国产业链供应链被排除风险。最后,本文据此提出中国如何在美国“去风险”背景下维护产业链供应链安全稳定的政策建议。Against multiple uncertainties such as intensified competition between major countries,public health emergencies and the Ukraine crisis,the global industrial chain and supply chain are entering an important stage of reshaping.Countries are actively exploring new models to optimize industrial chain and supply chain to ensure the security of domestic industrial chain and supply chain.At the same time,China's strong growth has put American dominance of global industries and supply chains at risk,so China is listed as the main competitor and the US is trying to get rid of its industrial and supply chain dependence on China by“decoupling”and“de‑risking”.This paper defines the scope of industrial chain and supply chain security,including the main element security and structural element security,and evaluates the security and resilience of China's industrial chain and supply chain in this framework.A review of the US policies from“decoupling”to“de‑risking”shows that both are tools of strategic competition,but there are obvious differences in wording.However,the rise of China is inherently in conflict with the US national security strategy based on unipolar thinking,so the US policy of reducing dependence on China’s industrial and supply chains is bound to remain for a long time,and“de‑risking”is a continuation of“decoupling”.The main impact of the US“de‑risking”on the security of China's industrial chain and supply chain and the practical challenges faced by China are mainly as follows.Firstly,by controlling the export of core technologies,intermediate products and key resources,the US endangers the security of main elements and damages the security of China's industrial chain and supply chain.Secondly,through the reshoring of manufacturing industry,“near‑shoring”and“friend‑shoring”,the US attempts to reshape the global industrial spatial layout,threatening the security of the structural elements of China's industrial and supply chain.The US has put forward the policy of

关 键 词：产业链供应链安全 主体要素安全 结构要素安全 近岸外包 友岸外包 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]