基于CIR模型的地铁客流弹性分析  

Resilience Analysis of Metro Passenger Flow Based on CIR Model

作　　者：徐玉萍[1] 侯明超 XU Yuping;HOU Mingchao(School of Transportation Engineering,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学交通运输工程学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2024年第1期20-25,共6页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：江西省社科规划项目(22YJ17);江西省研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2022-s561)。

摘　　要：为量化地铁系统的弹性,从客流的角度提出基于Cox-Ingersoll-Ross(CIR)模型的客流弹性指标。以单个或多个车站为对象,通过CIR模型模拟其在短期内进站客流和换乘客流的波动行为,并依此量化客流弹性。此外,讨论多车站的客流弹性与其各组成车站的内在关联。研究表明:客流弹性指标能够定量描述扰动后的客流恢复过程;中间车站的客流具有波动小、弹性高的特征;换乘车站的客流具有波动大、弹性低的特征;多车站的客流弹性与其中最大客流车站的弹性呈正相关,而多车站的客流弹性在其中小客流车站的弹性及客流量影响下呈现3种不同情况。To quantify the resilience of the subway system,a passenger flow resilience index is proposed based on the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model.The passenger flow resilience is used to describe how fast flow that has been displaced from equilibrium returns to it.The CIR model is used to simulate the fluctuating behavior of incoming and outgoing passengers at single or multiple stations in the short term.In addition,the study discusses the intrinsic correlation between the passenger flow resilience of multiple stations and their component stations.The study shows that the passenger flow resilience index can quantitatively describe the recovery process of the passenger flow after the disturbance,and the passenger flow of intermediate stations has the characteristics of low fluctuation and high resilience.The interchange stations has the characteristics of high fluctuation and low resilience,and the passenger flow resilience of multiple stations is positively correlated with the resilience of its large passenger flow stations,while the passenger flow resilience of multiple stations is influenced by the resilience of its small passenger flow stations with three different cases.

关 键 词：轨道交通 CIR模型 客流弹性 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]