基于NK模型的学校体育运动伤害事故风险耦合探究  

Risk Coupling Analysis of School Sports Injury Accidents Based on NK Mode

作　　者：陈圆 余嘉炜 CHEN Yuan;YU Jiawei(Graduate Office,Jilin Sport Univ.,Changchun 130022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林体育学院研究生处,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《体育教育学刊》2023年第6期46-53,共8页Journal of Physical Education

基　　金：吉林体育学院研究生科研创新基金一般项目(YC2021039)。

摘　　要：为防范学校体育运动伤害事故风险,保障学校体育事业的健康发展,调研学校体育运动伤害事故案例,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析人、物、管理、环境等学校体育运动伤害事故风险因素间的耦合关系。以中国裁判文书网收录的2017-2021年的315起学校体育运动伤害事故案件裁判文书为基础,应用NK模型计算不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素的耦合越多,学校发生体育运动伤害事故的风险越大;学校体育运动伤害事故局部耦合风险较为显著,尤其是人的因素和物的因素耦合,容易突破风险阈值引发事故。建议在学校体育运动的风险防控中,应从阻断学校体育运动伤害事故风险耦合路径,聚焦学校体育运动伤害事故风险薄弱环节,弱化学校体育运动伤害事故风险耦合效应三个方面入手,规避因多个风险因素或关键风险因素耦合导致的学校体育运动伤害事故。In order to control the risk of school sports injury accidents and guarantee the healthy development of school sports,the coupling relationships among risk factors of school sports injury accidents such as human,material,management,and environment were analyzed from single-factor,double-factor,and multifactors perspectives by investigating school sports injury accident cases re-spectively.The probability and risk value of different risk coupling were calculated by applying the NK model based on 315 judgment documents of school sports injury accident case included in China Judgments Online from 2017 to 2021.The results show that the more coupling of risk coupling factors,the greater the risk of school sports injury accidents;the local coupling risk of school sports injury accidents is relatively significant,especially the coupling of human factors and materials factors,which is easy to break through the risk threshold and cause accidents.Based on this,it is recommended that the risk prevention and control in school physical educa-tion and sports should start from three aspects,such as blocking the risk coupling path of school sports injury accidents,focusing on the weak link of school sports injury accident risk,and weakening the risk coupling effect of school sports injury accidents,so as to avoid school sports injury accidents caused by the coupling of multiple risk factors and key risk factors.

关 键 词：学校体育 运动伤害 体育运动伤害事故 NK模型 风险耦合 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]