海洋环境下深水区立管腐蚀速率预测  

Prediction of corrosion rates of risersin deep water in the marineenvironment

作　　者：骆正山[1] 马园园 骆济豪 王小完[1] LUO Zhengshan;MA Yuanyuan;LUO Jihao;WANG Xiaowan(School of Management,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China;Ruixin Institute of Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,西安710055 [2]北京理工大学睿信学院,北京102488

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第1期92-98,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41877527);陕西省社科基金项目(2018S34)。

摘　　要：为提升海洋环境下深水区立管腐蚀速率的预测精度,建立基于改进秃鹰搜索算法(Improved Bald Eagle Search, IBES)的EDGM(1, 1,ρ)腐蚀速率预测模型。通过Sine混沌映射初始化种群、莱维飞行策略、折射反向学习策略和柯西高斯变异策略提高秃鹰搜索算法的寻优能力和收敛速度;利用IBES算法优化EDGM(1, 1,ρ)中的参数ρ,建立IBES-EDGM(1, 1,ρ)模型以提高立管腐蚀速率的预测精度。以南海某海洋深水区立管数据为基础进行腐蚀速率预测,分析对比3种模型的预测结果。结果表明,优化后的模型与原模型相比误差更小,且预测精度得到了提高,能够更准确地预测深海立管的腐蚀速率,为后续管道系统的维修和更换提供理论参考。Corrosion of oil and gas pipelines is a major cause of pipeline failure,and although research on corrosion prediction of buried and subsea pipelines is relatively mature,little research has been conducted on marine risers.In this paper,the corrosion of risers in deep water under a marine environment is studied.To improve the prediction accuracy of the corrosion rate of risers in deep water under the marine environment,an EDGM(1,1)corrosion rate prediction model based on an Improved Bald Eagle Search(IBES)algorithm is established.The initial population layout of the Bald Eagle Search(BES)algorithm is optimized by initializing the population with sine chaotic mapping to enhance the optimization capability.A Lévy flight strategy is used to optimize the problem of the population converging too early and falling into a local optimum when selecting spatial solutions for the Condor Search algorithm.To address the problem of the search algorithm falling into a local optimum late in the iteration,the refractive backward learning strategy and the Corsi⁃Gaussian variational strategy are used to optimize the search algorithm to improve the optimization capability and convergence speed of the Condor search algorithm.The IBES algorithm is used to optimize the parameterρin EDGM(1,1,ρ)to establish the IBES EDGM(1,1,ρ)model to improve the prediction accuracy of the riser corrosion rate.The corrosion rate prediction was carried out based on riser data from a deep⁃water marine area in the South China Sea,and the prediction results of the three models were analyzed and compared.The results show that the IBES EDGM(1,1,ρ)model has an EMAE of 0.0307,ERMSE of 0.0098,and FD of 0.9450,which are all better than the EDGM(1,1)and BES EDGM(1,1,ρ)models.The constructed IBES EDGM(1,1,ρ)model has less error and improved prediction accuracy compared to the conventional model and can predict the corrosion rate of deep⁃sea risers more accurately.In the absence of a large amount of corrosion data,this model can be used to predict the co

关 键 词：安全工程 海洋环境 深水区立管 腐蚀速率 改进秃鹰搜索算法(IBES) EDGM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]