基于贝叶斯理论的交叉口安全评价研究  

Research on Intersection Safety Evaluation Based on Bayesian Theory

作　　者：王慧玲 姜明阳 WANG Huiling;JIANG Mingyang(School of Architecture and Transportation,Liaoning Technical University,Liaoning Fuxin 123000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学建筑与交通学院,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第2期82-89,共8页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：为探究城市道路交通事故发生机理,选取南京市典型信号交叉口,基于交叉口的交通流调查数据,结合贝叶斯网络模型数字分析法和交叉口危险度分析法对该交叉口进行交通安全评价.一方面,基于交叉口交通安全影响因素构建贝叶斯网络模型,评估各因素对交通安全的影响度,进而分类交通事故;另一方面,分析不同信控条件下,交叉口的交通安全水平.研究结果表明:①各因素对交叉口安全影响程度依次为:人>道路>车>环境,且人、道路、车辆、环境因素影响权重分别为0.305、0.262、0.230、0.203;②柳州北路—浦珠北路十字交叉口在未设信控装置时,交叉口危险度K_(α)≈10.8,处于8.1<K_(α)<12范畴,交叉口很危险,在设置信控装置后,交叉口危险度K_(α)≈2.6,K_(α)<3,交叉口处于安全状态.通过安全影响因素贝叶斯模型,可推算不同因素共同作用下交通事故发生概率,对此拟定针对性的改善与管理策略,降低道路交通不安全度.In order to investigate the mechanism of urban road traffic accidents,a typical signal intersection in Nanjing was selected,and traffic safety evaluation of the intersection was carried out based on the traffic flow survey data of the intersection,combined with Bayesian network model numerical analysis method and intersection hazard analysis method.On one hand,a Bayesian network model is constructed based on the intersection traffic safety influencing factors to evaluate the influence degree of each factor on traffic safety and then classify traffic accidents;on the other hand,the traffic safety level of the intersection is analyzed under different signal-controlled conditions.The results show that:(i)the influence degree of each factor on intersection safety is:people>road>vehicle>environment,and the influence weights of people,road,vehicle and environment factors are 0.305,0.262,0.230 and 0.203 respectively;(ii)the intersection danger degree K_(α)≈10.8 at the intersection of Liuzhou North Road-Puzhu North Road when no fiduciary control device is set up,which is in the 8.1<K_(α)<12,the intersection is very dangerous;after the installation of the signal control device,the intersection hazard K_(α)≈2.6,K_(α)<3,and the intersection is in a safe state.Through the Bayesian model of safety impact factors,we can project the probability of traffic accidents under the combined effect of different factors,and formulate targeted improvement and management strategies to reduce road traffic insecurity.

关 键 词：交通安全 城市交叉口 安全影响评价 贝叶斯理论分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]