交通弱势出行者轨迹预测及安全管控策略  

Trajectory prediction and safety control strategy of vulnerable road user

作　　者：叶含月 徐永能[1] 陈新[1] YE Hanyue;XU Yongneng;CHEN Xin(School of Automation,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210094,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《江苏大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期198-205,共8页Journal of Jiangsu University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52072214)。

摘　　要：针对骑车人在交通事故中易受伤害的问题,提出一种基于骑车人意图识别的轨迹预测方法.首先,从骑车人角度及车辆角度提取骑车人的多元特征,如运动方向、回头概率、与车辆相对位置等,在十字路口场景下构建动态贝叶斯模型网络,分析了骑车人意图的影响因素,最终得到骑车人意图后验概率.其次,根据意图识别结果,构建了相关交通场景并给出了骑车人运动方程,通过基于粒子滤波方法的骑车人轨迹预测算法,结合运动方程及观测方程,以粒子模拟骑车人未来轨迹集.最后,搭建激光雷达和单目相机为主的数据采集硬件平台,获取与骑车人运动及姿态有关的信息,根据收集的7 358帧数据,计算出骑车人进入十字路口区域的时长,用以对算法进行评价.结果表明:本算法在骑车人过街前0.24~0.54 s可基本识别骑车人的意图,能够预测骑车人未来5.0 s内的轨迹集;算法具有较好的实用性,可以降低骑车人与车辆碰撞事故的发生概率.To solve the problem that the cyclist was vulnerable in the traffic accident,a trajectory prediction method was proposed based on the intention identification of cyclist.The diverse characteristics of cyclists were extracted from the perspective of cyclists and vehicles,such as the direction of movement,the probability of returning and the relative position of the vehicle,and the dynamic Bayesian model network was established under the intersection scenario.The influencing factor of cyclist intention was analyzed to obtain the probability of cyclist intention.According to the results of intention identification,the relevant traffic scenarios were built,and the cycling motion equation was given.Through the cycling trajectory prediction algorithm based on particle filtering methods,combined with the motion equation and observation equation,the future trajectory of the cyclist was simulated with particles simulation set.The data collection hardware platform was set up based on laser radar and monocular cameras to obtain the information related to the cyclist movement and posture.Based on the collected 7358 frame data,the length of the cyclist entering the intersection area was calculated to evaluate the algorithm.The results show that the proposed algorithm can basically identify the intention of the cyclist 0.24-0.54 s before the riding person crossing the street and can predict the rider′s track set of future 5.0 s.The algorithm is of great significance for improving road security.

关 键 词：交通弱势出行者 骑车人轨迹预测 粒子滤波 意图识别 动态贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：U12[交通运输工程]