考虑热舒适度的居民空调负荷调控潜力差异化评估  

Differentiation Evaluation of Regulation Potential for Residential Air Conditioning Load Considering Thermal Comfort

作　　者：金旭 张远实 李明 窦晓波[1] 阮文骏 段梅梅 JIN Xu;ZHANG Yuanshi;LI Ming;DOU Xiaobo;RUAN Wenjun;DUAN Meimei(School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing 100031,China;State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学电气工程学院,江苏省南京市210096 [2]国家电网有限公司,北京市100031 [3]国网江苏省电力有限公司,江苏省南京市210000

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2024年第1期50-58,共9页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(5108-202218280A-2-0-XG)。

摘　　要：居民空调负荷是电力系统重要的灵活性资源,评估其调控潜力有助于负荷高效管理,促进节能减排。然而,受资金成本、数据存储和隐私保护等因素制约,居民空调状态及参数难以直接测量,差异化评估不同居民空调负荷的调控潜力存在困难。此外,居民使用空调是为了满足自身的热舒适度要求。若评估空调负荷调控潜力时忽视热舒适度限制,将导致评估值过高,降低负荷管理策略的有效性。因此,提出一种考虑热舒适度的居民空调负荷调控潜力差异化评估方法。该方法首先建立居民热舒适度及空调热动力学模型,提取影响居民热舒适度和空调负荷的关键参数;然后,利用隐马尔可夫模型和维特比算法辨识空调状态及参数;在此基础上,计算不同居民热舒适度可接受范围内的空调负荷调控潜力。基于真实居民负荷数据的算例分析表明,所提方法能够准确辨识居民空调状态并有效评估满足居民热舒适度要求的空调负荷调控潜力。Residential air conditioning load serves as a crucial flexibility resource in the power system,and the evaluation of its regulation potential contributes to efficient load management and promotes energy conservation and emission reduction.However,due to the limits such as financial cost,data storage,and privacy protection,direct measurement of the residential air conditioning states and parameters is difficult,thereby hindering the differentiation evaluation of the air conditioning load regulation potential of different residents.Furthermore,residents use air conditioning to meet their thermal comfort requirements.Neglecting the constraints of thermal comfort when evaluating the air conditioning load regulation potential may result in overestimating evaluation values,thereby diminishing the effectiveness of load management strategies.Hence,this paper proposes a differentiation evaluation method of regulation potential for residential air conditioning load considering the thermal comfort.The method establishes the models for residential thermal comfort and air conditioning thermodynamics,and extracts key parameters that influence the residential thermal comfort and air conditioning load.Subsequently,a hidden Markov model and the Viterbi algorithm are employed to identify the air conditioning states and parameters.On this basis,the air conditioning load regulation potentials within the acceptable ranges of different resident thermal comfort levels are calculated.The case analysis based on real residential load data demonstrates that the proposed method accurately identifies the residential air conditioning states,and effectively evaluates the air conditioning load regulation potential that meets the thermal comfort requirements of residents.

关 键 词：居民空调负荷 热舒适度 状态辨识 调控潜力评估 隐马尔可夫模型 维特比算法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]