气候变暖背景下汉江流域降水和气温时空变化特征  

Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature inHanjiang River Basin under climate warming

作　　者：安彬[1,2] 肖薇薇 AN Bin;XIAO Weiwei(Academician and Expert Workstation of Shaanxi Province,Ankang University,Ankang 725000,China;Engineering Technology Research Center for Water Resource Protection and Utilization of Hanjiang River,Ankang 725000,China)

机构地区：[1]安康学院陕西省科协院士专家工作站,陕西安康725000 [2]安康市汉江水资源保护与利用工程技术研究中心,陕西安康725000

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第2期84-92,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：陕西省科技厅项目(2021KRM033);陕西省教育厅项目(22JK0233);安康学院校内专项项目(2021AYKFKT03)。

摘　　要：为探究气候变暖背景下汉江流域降水和气温的时空发展规律,基于汉江流域及其周边地区29个气象站点逐日降水(P_(re))、最高气温(T_(max))、最低气温(T_(min))和平均气温(T_(ave))的观测资料,利用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall突变检验和空间插值等方法,分析1960~2019年汉江流域降水和气温的时空变化特征,以及对变暖停滞现象(Hiatus)的响应。结果表明:①在全球变暖背景下,汉江流域气候表现出降水不显著减少(p>0.05)、气温显著上升(p<0.05)的暖干化趋势。1960~2019年汉江流域P_(re)变化幅度夏季(0.582 mm/a)>秋季(-0.477 mm/a)>春季(-0.403 mm/a)>全年(-0.184 mm/a)>冬季(0.125 mm/a);全年升温幅度呈T_(min)(0.028℃/a)>T_(max)(0.025℃/a)>T_(ave)(0.022℃/a),四季T_(max)、T_(min)和T_(ave)一致呈上升趋势,多数升温趋势通过了显著性检验(p<0.05),但升温幅度存在明显差异。②汉江流域全年和夏季P_(re)均未发生突变,春、秋季P_(re)在1970年代中后期发生突变下降,冬季P_(re)在1984年突变增加;除夏季T_(max)和T_(ave)外,其余时序气温集中在1990年代中后期至2000年代前期发生了突变上升。③汉江流域全年P_(re)自东南向北递减,四季P_(re)空间分布规律各异,全年和四季T_(max)、T_(min)和T_(ave)皆自南向北递减;全年及四季P_(re)、T_(max)、T_(min)和T_(ave)变化趋势具有较强的空间异质性。④1998~2012年汉江流域出现Hiatus现象,尤其以冬季最为明显;停滞后春夏季快速增温,秋冬季依旧呈降温趋势。研究成果对于制定汉江流域防灾减灾、供水保障应对策略具有重要的科学意义。To explore the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and temperature in the Hanjiang River Basin under the background of global climate warming,based on daily precipitation(P_(re)),maximum temperature(T_(max)),minimum temperature(T_(min)),and average temperature(T_(ave))data from 29 meteorological stations in the Hanjiang River Basin and its surrounding areas,spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature from 1960 to 2019,as well as the response of temperature to the warming stagnation phenomenon(Hiatus)were analyzed by using the linear fitting,Mann-Kendall abrupt test,and spatial interpolation methods,etc.The results showed that:①the climate in the Hanjiang River Basin showed a warming and drying trend,with an insignificant decrease in precipitation(p>0.05)and a significant increase in temperature(p<0.05).The variation range of precipitation from high to low was summer(0.582 mm/a)>autumn(-0.477 mm/a)>spring(-0.403 mm/a)>the whole year(-0.184 mm/a)>winter(0.125 mm/a)during 1960~2019.The annual warming range was T_(min)(0.028℃/a)>T_(max)(0.025℃/a)>T_(ave)(0.022℃/a).T_(max),T_(min),and T_(ave) all showed a consistent upward trend in four seasons,but there were significant differences in the warming range,and most of the warming trends passed the significance test(p<0.05).②The precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin did not undergo abrupt changes throughout the year and summer but showed an abrupt decrease in spring and autumn in the middle to late 1970s and an abrupt increase in the winter of 1984.Except for T_(max) and T_(ave) in summer,other temperature time series experienced an abrupt increase from the middle to late 1990s to the early 2000s.③The annual precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin showed a decreasing pattern from southeast to north,with varying spatial distribution patterns throughout the four seasons.The spatial pattern of T_(max),T_(min),and T_(ave) decreased from south to north throughout the year and all seasons and their changing trends exhibit st

关 键 词：降水 气温 气候变暖 Hiatus现象 突变分析 汉江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]