地方政府预算公开的市场识别与反应——来自省级政府债券定价的证据  

Market Identification and Response for Local Government Budget Disclosure:Evidence from Provincial Government Bond Pricing

作　　者：张琦[1] 杨悦 ZHANG Qi;YANG Yue(Government Accounting Research Institute,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学政府会计研究所,430073

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第12期77-94,共18页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(20JZD017);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71872182)的资助。

摘　　要：政府增强预算透明度是其履行公共受托责任的重要体现,它有助于保障公众的知情权、参与权和监督权。但政府预算公开的努力能否被市场识别并给予积极的回馈,尚缺乏经验证据的支持。本文选取2015—2020年省级地方政府债券发行数据,检验了地方预算公开对政府债券定价的影响。研究发现:地方政府自愿提升预算披露质量能够显著降低政府债券的发行利差。其中,信息获取成本、分析成本与风险溢价的降低是其主要的作用机制。该结论在使用工具变量、安慰剂检验以及进行一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步研究发现,预算公开的债券定价效应仍受制于市场化水平,较高的市场化水平增强了预算公开对债券利差的降低效应。在经济后果分析中,地方政府预算公开通过降低政府债券发行利差,减少了地方实际融资成本,促进了地区经济发展。本文的研究从市场角度评估政府预算公开的后果,对识别政府预算信息的决策有用性等具备明显的文献贡献,且对于促进“有为政府”和“有效市场”更好结合也具有明确的政策价值。Local governments play the dual roles of public goods suppliers and market participants.On the one hand,local governments,as public goods suppliers,can safeguard the public's right to know,and participate and supervise the budget by enhancing budget transparency,thus having clear public benefits but bearing economic costs directly.On the other hand,local governments,as market participants,participate in market financing through the issuance of government bonds to make up for the financial shortfall in the process of public service provision,and are thus incentivized and constrained by the bond pricing mechanism.If the efforts of local governments to spontaneously improve the quality of budget information disclosure can be further recognized by the market and obtain positive economic feedback,it will help to establish a positive linkage between the budget disclosure reform and the government's debt issuance behavior,there by promoting the budget disclosure reform to achieve“Pareto improvement”between the government and society.This paper examines the impact of local budget disclosure on government bond pricing by selecting provincial local government bond issuance data from 2015 to 2020.We find that local governments'voluntary enhancement of budget disclosure quality can significantly reduce the issuance spread of government bonds,and the reduction of information acquisition cost,analysis cost,and risk premium are the main mechanisms.This finding remains robust after using instrumental variables,placebo test,and a series of robustness tests.In addition,the bond pricing effect of budget disclosure is still subject to the level of marketization.Only when the level of marketization is high,can improving the quality of budget disclosure more significantly reduce the bond issuance spread.In the analysis of economic consequences,local government budget disclosure reduces local financing costs and promotes regional economic development by lowering government bond issuance spreads.The findings of this paper may posses

关 键 词：预算公开 披露质量 债券定价 市场反应 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学] F832.51