人口老龄化如何影响工业机器人使用?  

How Does Population Ageing Affect the Application of Industrial Robots?

作　　者：刘斌 王禹 Liu Bin;Wang Yu(China Institute for WTO Studies,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国世界贸易组织研究院

出　　处：《人口研究》2024年第1期85-102,共18页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“制造业投入服务化、服务贸易壁垒与国际生产分割”(71973025)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：人口老龄化是目前世界上众多国家(地区)面临的普遍现象。尽管人口老龄化会给供给端带来劳动力短缺等负面冲击,但其对供给端的影响也蕴含着积极因素。使用多种国际数据库中的人口数据、工业机器人数据和社会经济发展数据,研究人口老龄化如何影响工业机器人使用。研究结果表明,人口老龄化对工业机器人使用具有显著的促进作用,这种作用通过工资成本倒逼效应、人机矛盾弱化效应和人力资本积累效应3条渠道实现。异质性分析结果表明,人口老龄化对工业机器人使用的促进作用在智能制造战略准备度、技术准备度和人才准备度高的国家(地区)更为明显。因此,应加强智能制造领域的战略部署、技术攻关和人才培养,以打通人口老龄化积极影响的释放渠道。Population ageing, as a common phenomenon in developed countries, has now become a challenge for many developing countries in the “post-demographic dividend era”. Although population ageing causes supply-side shocks such as labor shortages, its impact also includes positive aspects. By using UN population data and industrial robot data, this study examines how population ageing affects the application of industrial robots. The results indicate a significant increase in the utilization of industrial robot due to population ageing. This effect is realized through three channels: the labor cost anti-driving effect, the human-machine conflict weakening effect, and the human capital accumulation effect. Furthermore, the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the driving force is more pronounced in countries(regions) with higher strategic readiness, technical readiness, and talent readiness in the field of intelligent manufacturing. Therefore, it is crucial to strengthen strategic deployment, technological research, and talent training in the field of intelligent manufacturing to unblock the channels for releasing the positive impact of population ageing.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 工业机器人 工资成本 人机矛盾 人力资本 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学] F426.67