双循环格局下考虑需求不确定的供应链信息披露策略研究  

Supply Chain Information Disclosure Strategy Considering Uncertain Demands Under the Development Pattern of Dual Circulation

作　　者：刘家国 张惠民 杨明明 Liu Jiaguo;Zhang Huimin;Yang Mingming(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第1期220-230,共11页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22AGL020);国家自然科学基金项目(71774019);辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2023-MS-121);中央高校基本业务费项目(3132022608)。

摘　　要：“双循环”新发展格局下,面对市场的不确定性,掌握全面数据的本土制造商是否有动机披露市场信息,更精准的需求信号又是否对供应链各方都有利?本文构建了竞争环境下的程式化信号博弈模型来研究供应链中的信息披露问题。在信息加密和信息披露两种模式下,结合品牌形象、市场不确定性及投资效率等因素对供应链各成员策略选择的影响,推导出实现供应链帕累托最优的条件区间。结果表明:当投资成本高于某个阈值时,本土制造商会选择信息披露策略,而跨国制造商则始终青睐于信息披露策略;同时,国内外供应链成员存在共赢区间,具体划分为“优质形象下的共赢”和“劣质形象下的共赢”,且区间大小受到市场不确定性、干扰市场预测的噪音偏差和国外批发价格的影响。Under the new development pattern of dual circulation and facing the uncertainty of the market,it’s worth discussing whether local manufacturers with comprehensive data have the motivation to disclose informa⁃tion and whether more accurate demand signals are beneficial to all parties in the supply chain.A stylized signal game model under the competitive environment is constructed to study the information disclosure problem in the supply chain system.In the two modes of information encryption and information disclosure,factors affecting the strategy choices of the supply chain members such as product brand image,market demand uncertainty,and investment efficiency are considered to deduce the conditional interval for achieving the Pareto optimality of the supply chain.The results show that encrypting company information to maintain the information security of the supply chain may not be the best choice for local manufacturers.When the investment cost is higher than a certain threshold,local manufacturers will voluntarily abandon the information encryption strategy and turn to the disclosure strategy,while the multinational manufacturers always favor the information disclosure strategy.Meanwhile,there is a win-win interval for domestic and foreign supply chain members,which are specifically divided into“win-win under a high-quality image”and“win-win under a poor-quality image”.Interestingly,the size of the win-win interval is affected by the market demand uncertainty,noise deviations that interfere with market forecasts,and foreign wholesale prices.Therefore,companies should pay close attention to market fluctuations and their own brand image before making strategic choices.

关 键 词：双循环格局 需求不确定 信息披露 贝叶斯博弈 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]