1981—2022年西藏“一江两河”主要农区农业界限温度变化特征  

Variation characteristics of agricultural boundary temperature in main agricultural regions in basins of the Brahmaputra River and its two tributaries in Xizang from 1981 to 2022

作　　者：郭艺楠 黄志诚 杜军 徐薇 GUO Yinan;HUANG Zhicheng;DU Jun;XU Wei(Xizang Meteorological Information and Network Centre,Lhasa 850001,China;Rikaze National Climate Observatory,CMA,Rikaze 857000,Xizang,China;Xizang Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research/Xizang Open Laboratory of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Research,Lhasa 850001,China;Field Science Experiment Base for Comprehensive Observation of Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog,CMA/Mêdog National Climate Observatory,Mêdog 860700,Xizang,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气象信息网络中心,西藏拉萨850001 [2]日喀则国家气候观象台,西藏日喀则857000 [3]西藏高原大气环境科学研究所/西藏高原大气环境研究开放实验室,西藏拉萨850001 [4]中国气象局墨脱大气水分循环综合观测野外科学试验基地/墨脱国家气候观象台,西藏墨脱860700

出　　处：《干旱气象》2024年第1期47-53,共7页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象科学研究院青藏高原与极地气象科学研究所开放课题(ITPP2021K03);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0106)共同资助。

摘　　要：日平均气温≥10℃是喜温作物适宜生长的下限温度。西藏“一江两河”主要农区≥10℃积温变化是判断该地区热量资源的关键指标。基于1981—2022年该区域9个气象站点的日平均气温数据,使用线性倾向估计、Pearson相关系数、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析法,分析≥10℃界限温度的气候变化特征。结果表明:(1)随着海拔高度的升高,≥10℃界限温度出现明显垂直地带性特征,包括≥10℃初日推迟、终日提前、持续日数与积温减少。(2)近42 a来,该地区≥10℃初日普遍提前,气候倾向率为-2.53 d·(10 a)-1;终日延后,倾向率为3.33 d·(10 a)-1;持续日数和积温均明显增加,倾向率分别为5.87 d·(10 a)-1、106.19℃·d·(10 a)-1。与青藏高原其他地区相比,这种变化更为明显。(3)20世纪80年代是过去40 a≥10℃初日最迟、终日最早、持续日数最短、积温最少的10 a,与之相对的是21世纪10年代的情况截然相反。(4)≥10℃界限温度的H指数均大于0.65,表明未来≥10℃界限温度初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数延长和积温增加的变化趋势将持续存在。The mean daily temperature of 10℃is the lower limit temperature for the suitable growth of thermophilic crop.The≥10℃active accumulated temperature(ATT10)is one of the important indexes to measure the heat resources in the main agricultural regions of the Brahmaputra River and its two tributaries over Xizang(BRTX).Based on the daily average temperature data of 9 meteorological sta⁃tions in BRTX from 1981 to 2022,the linear trend estimation,Pearson coefficient,Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis method were used to analyze climate change characteristics of≥10℃boundary temperature(BT10).The results are as follows:(1)With the increase of altitude,the BT10 showed obvious vertical zonal characteristics in the main agricultural regions of BRTX,including the delay of initial date,the advance of the last day,the decrease of duration days and the ATT10.(2)From 1981 to 2022,the initial date of BT10 was ad⁃vanced by-2.53 d·(10 a)-1,and the final date delayed with a rate of 3.33 d·(10 a)-1,the duration days and ATT10 significantly increased with a rate of 5.87 d·(10 a)-1 and 106.19°C·d·(10 a)-1,respectively.Compared with the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,the magnitude of BT10 change was significantly larger.(3)The 1980s was the decade with the latest initial date,the earliest final date,the shortest duration days and the lowest ATT10 in the past 40 years,while the 21st century was the opposite.(4)The H indexes of the BT10 were all greater than 0.65,indicating that in the future the BT10 will maintain a strong persistence of earlier initial day,later final day,prolonged dura⁃tion days and increased ATT10.The mutation change of the initial date of BT10 occurred in the early 1990s,while the abrupt change of the final date,duration days and ATT10 occurred in the first decade of the 21st century.

关 键 词：≥10℃活动积温 初日 终日 持续日数 年际和年代际变化 突变 西藏“一江两河” 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]